We'll interrupt the series on Why Forecasts are Wrong, with a report from the inaugural Analytics 2011 conference, held last week in Orlando. A2011 drew over 1025 attendees (from 44 states and over 25 counties).  The Analytics conference series features a wide range of topics (including forecasting, optimization, data mining, text

This week brought big news of one of the most cruel and heartless tyrants of the 21st century.  This man is known for narcissistic behavior, surrounding himself with a cadre of beautiful women, sleeping in a different place every night, picking new favorites each week, and bringing tears and untold suffering

Two weeks ago I had the pleasure of reading Tom Wallace's new book, Sales & Operations Planning: Beyond the Basics.  This is not an introductory "how to" book -- Tom and Bob Stahl have already written those -- but instead covers nine major companies that have implemented (and extended!) S&OP

Webinar October 4, 1:10 pm ET: What is Your Product Forecastability??? Thanks to Rich Gendon and the Chicago APICS chapter for hosting me last week at their professional development dinner meeting.  I always enjoy evening speaking gigs, as they provide a chance to break out some of my nightclub-worthy material. 

We continue my colleague Udo Sglavo's example with the SAS code for incorporating R models into SAS Forecast Server: Code for Including R Model Results in SAS As a first step I’m exporting a data set containing one  time series from SAS to R (actually I will use the same

My colleague Udo Sglavo is back, responding to comments on his guest blog from two weeks ago.  For fans of SAS and R, he shows how to incorporate results from Hyndman's R model into SAS. Do the Evolution After publishing my blog on replicating Rob J Hyndman’s  cross validation idea

Look at the following graphs showing one weekly time series. The left hand shows the actual time series plot. To the less statistically inclined this plot might indicate that the data is seasonal due to the troughs during summer and the peaks during winter. However, if you were to use

In this guest blog, my colleague Snurre Jensen (Analytic Solutions Manager, SAS EMEA Technology Practice) discusses a fine point regarding the word “seasonality” in time series forecasting.  When we see general ups and downs in the data that tend to repeat year after year, we commonly refer to this as

In Part 1, Udo provided SAS code to replicate the example in Hyndman's blog.  Below, he shows the results of out-of-sample testing, and draws some conclusions on the computational efficiency of this approach. Out-of-sample Testing In addition to the example shared by Hyndman, out-of-sample data was used to illustrate the final performance