There are some things about forecasting that you may only discover by being a forecaster. Simply managing a forecasting process, or being a downstream consumer of the forecast, isn't always enough. If you have something to say to your management about forecasting, but would rather avoid the confrontation, maybe we

Before we begin, I want to thank all of you readers who supported my righteous appeal for “THE BFD” license plate from the state of North Carolina. I am sad to report, however, that our efforts were in vain and the appeal was denied by Censorship Board of the Division

In case you haven't heard, the state of North Carolina needs money. Roads are falling apart, parks are left unkempt, prisoners are being released, and public school cafeterias can no longer afford to put anything surprising in their Chef's Surprise. In order to help assuage the crisis, and in my

Would you buy something that doesn’t have demonstrable Return on Investment? Of course you would! Whether you realize it or not, you do this every time you buy software. There is no proven ROI. Maybe this is just a pet peeve of mine. Maybe I care too much about cause

I’m back from a week of vacation in Michigan and bursting with new topics, but will have to get to those next week (still playing catch-up in my day job). I do, however, have the pleasure to announce the publication of a new book by my friend and colleague Charlie

The SAS internal discussion boards are always full of fascinating topics, some of which are even decipherable to a non-Ph.D. in statistics like me. A recent topic involved how to calculate the benefits of good forecasting software, and my colleague Robin Way offered an interesting perspective that he allowed me

Personally, I don’t get Twitter. I have an account (mvgilliland) for anyone interested in not hearing any tweets from me. I follow a few people and have a few followers (including some that aren't porn bots) -- but what is the point? Does anyone really care that I’m out hanging

The Summer 2009 issue of Foresight is now available, and features a section on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast.” Here is Editor Len Tashman’s preview: Are traditional forecasting tools suitable for predicting complex systems like the economy and the global climate? Basically, no, argue David Orrell and Patrick McSharry: such

On a Monday July 20 segment of consumer advocate Clark Howard’s radio show, Clark discussed the common practice of hidden payments to influential bloggers. Apparently these high-tech shills pocket the payola, and then make favorable postings about particular products or services. According to Clark, there are new rules to prevent

Aren’t the internets wonderful? Just today I was trying to find the antonym of “naïve” and came across several terrific choices (sophisticated, worldly, well-informed, and intelligent) and one that didn’t make any sense (svelte???). However, upon further review at Merriam-Webster.com, I discovered that in addition to slender, lithe, and sleek

In April 2009, Google published a draft research paper “Predicting the Present with Google Trends,” by Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian and Decision Support Engineering Analyst Hyungyoung Choi. The paper is available for download in an April 2 posting by Varian and Choy on the Google Research Blog that has

With apologies to Johnnie Cochran and Joyce Kilmer : “If the model do fit, it don’t prove ****” This was the warning from Trick #1. As a forecaster your job is to produce forecasts – as good as they can reasonably be expected to be – not to fit models

The Spring 2009 Foresight feature on assessing forecastability is a must-read for anyone who gets yelled at for having lousy forecasts. (It should also be read by those who do the yelling, but you’d have to be living in Neverland to believe that will ever happen.) As I promised in

Today I welcome guest blogger Len Tashman, Editor of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. I’ve been a big fan of Foresight since its inception in 2005, and the Spring 2009 issue contains a special feature on a topic close to my heart -- assessing forecastability. Here is Len’s

Tricks aren’t just for kids (or Louisiana senators or New York governors for that matter). Tricks are the lifeblood for many a forecasting software salesperson. Why admit that forecasting is difficult, that most things can’t be forecast as accurately as we would like, or that your software has the statistical

What do men really want? What do women really want? If you seek answers to these eternal questions go watch Oprah or Dr. Phil – I don’t really care. They are not nearly as interesting as the question: What do forecasting software buyers really want? Organizations spend millions of dollars

This morning kicks off F2009, the fourth annual Business Forecasting Conference held at SAS world headquarters in Cary, NC. We are again hosting a broad mix of thought leaders, academic researchers, and industry and government practitioners. Pre-registration included 230 attendees spanning 79 commercial organizations, government agencies, and universities, from an

Did Hippocrates really say this? Probably not, for among other reasons he spoke Ancient Greek and not Modern English. However, such mere technicality should not distract us from the importance of this oath for forecasters. Please place your hand over your heart and say with me: First, do no harm.

Think of this as consumer protection for the business forecaster. The Business Forecasting Deal is a new blog exploring the dark side of the forecasting profession. Its purpose is to expose the snake oil and shoddy practices of those who either don’t understand the realities of forecasting, or who can’t