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Why the Attraction for the Offensive Paradigm? In addition to the reasons provided by Green and Armstrong, I'd like to add one more reason for the lure of complexity: You can always add complexity to a model to better fit the history. In fact, you can always create a model
Eighteen years ago, on a cold and rainy day, I was frustrated. It had been three weeks since I made the discovery. Yes, the ultrasound declared it a solid mass and not a cyst. No, the mammogram didn’t know exactly what it was. I agreed to wait eight weeks to
Fresh from chairing the Foresight Practitioner Conference on “Worst Practices in Business Forecasting,” hosted two weeks ago at the Institute for Advanced Analytics at North Carolina State University, Foresight editor-in-chief Len Tashman previews the Fall 2016 issue. Preview of the Fall 2016 issue of Foresight In the provocative article, “The
A previous post discusses how the loess regression algorithm is implemented in SAS. The LOESS procedure in SAS/STAT software provides the data analyst with options to control the loess algorithm and fit nonparametric smoothing curves through points in a scatter plot. Although PROC LOESS satisfies 99.99% of SAS users who
Cuando Social Media comenzaba a ganar popularidad entre las personas y las marcas, comenzaron a surgir creencias acerca de la disminución de interacciones “reales” o “cara a cara”, puesto que se desarrollaron a la par, soluciones que permitían realizar casi todo desde dispositivos conectados a internet: desde actividades cotidianas, hasta
This is the second of the seven parts of blog post series “A practical guide to tackle auto insurance fraud”. While Data Management and Data Quality are the basis for every analytical journey, and this becomes even more true for fraud detection analytics, the domain knowledge and business expertise plaid
Implications for the Offensive Paradigm The worldview promulgated by the Offensive paradigm is that if we only had MORE – more data, more computational power, more complex models, more elaborate processes – we could eventually solve the business forecasting problem. But this just doesn’t seem to be the case. Operating
Utility leaders are struggling with a world that's quickly changing and barely recognizable from the one they knew growing up. Many of the old assumptions are gone, and the business model upon which careers have been built is on the verge of disappearing. So what does the internet of things
Hadoop may have been the buzzword for the last few years, but streaming seems to be what everyone is talking about these days. Hadoop deals primarily with big data in stationary and batch-based analytics. But modern streaming technologies are aimed at the opposite spectrum, dealing with data in motion and
Have you seen this error when running a program in SAS Enterprise Guide? ERROR: You cannot open WORK.YOURDATA.DATA for output access with member-level control because WORK.YOURDATA.DATA is in use by you in resource environment IOM ROOT COMP ENV. Or maybe: ERROR: A lock is not available for LIB.YOURDATA.DATA. NOTE: The
Die Kosten drücken auf die Gewinnmarge der Banken. In der aktuellen Niedrigzinsphase ist dies besonders schmerzhaft. Neue Wettbewerber, aber auch das veränderte Kundenverhalten zwingen Banken zusätzlich zum Handeln. Daraus ergeben sich mindestens zwei Ansatzpunkte zur Optimierung durch Digitalisierung: Die bestehenden Prozesse in der Kreditvergabe und -verwaltung müssen schlanker werden, die
With the US Affordable Care Act (ACA) and other health topics in the news lately, I wondered how much people spend on healthcare in various countries. Of course spending varies from person to person, so I decided to take a look at the average per capita spending in each country (it's
Open. The very word evokes a sense of happiness and possibility. When you’re hungry at an odd hour and everything around you seems to be closed, that lone neon sign glowing in a restaurant window is a most welcome relief. When a shop or service you’ve longed for finally builds
In Part 1 of this series, we defined data governance as a framework – something an organization can implement in small pieces. Data management encompasses the disciplines included in the data governance framework. They include the following: Data quality and data profiling. Metadata (business, technical and operational). Data security. Data movement within the enterprise.
Is Complexity Bad? It’s necessary to point out that Goodwin’s article is not arguing against complexity per se, and I’m not either. When you have a high value forecast, where it is critical to be as accurate as possible, of course you are going to want to try every technique