We'll interrupt the series on Why Forecasts are Wrong, with a report from the inaugural Analytics 2011 conference, held last week in Orlando. A2011 drew over 1025 attendees (from 44 states and over 25 counties).  The Analytics conference series features a wide range of topics (including forecasting, optimization, data mining, text

This week brought big news of one of the most cruel and heartless tyrants of the 21st century.  This man is known for narcissistic behavior, surrounding himself with a cadre of beautiful women, sleeping in a different place every night, picking new favorites each week, and bringing tears and untold suffering

Two weeks ago I had the pleasure of reading Tom Wallace's new book, Sales & Operations Planning: Beyond the Basics.  This is not an introductory "how to" book -- Tom and Bob Stahl have already written those -- but instead covers nine major companies that have implemented (and extended!) S&OP

Webinar October 4, 1:10 pm ET: What is Your Product Forecastability??? Thanks to Rich Gendon and the Chicago APICS chapter for hosting me last week at their professional development dinner meeting.  I always enjoy evening speaking gigs, as they provide a chance to break out some of my nightclub-worthy material. 

We continue my colleague Udo Sglavo's example with the SAS code for incorporating R models into SAS Forecast Server: Code for Including R Model Results in SAS As a first step I’m exporting a data set containing one  time series from SAS to R (actually I will use the same

My colleague Udo Sglavo is back, responding to comments on his guest blog from two weeks ago.  For fans of SAS and R, he shows how to incorporate results from Hyndman's R model into SAS. Do the Evolution After publishing my blog on replicating Rob J Hyndman’s  cross validation idea

Look at the following graphs showing one weekly time series. The left hand shows the actual time series plot. To the less statistically inclined this plot might indicate that the data is seasonal due to the troughs during summer and the peaks during winter. However, if you were to use

In this guest blog, my colleague Snurre Jensen (Analytic Solutions Manager, SAS EMEA Technology Practice) discusses a fine point regarding the word “seasonality” in time series forecasting.  When we see general ups and downs in the data that tend to repeat year after year, we commonly refer to this as

In Part 1, Udo provided SAS code to replicate the example in Hyndman's blog.  Below, he shows the results of out-of-sample testing, and draws some conclusions on the computational efficiency of this approach. Out-of-sample Testing In addition to the example shared by Hyndman, out-of-sample data was used to illustrate the final performance

 In this guest blogger post, Udo Sglavo of the Advanced Analytics Division of SAS shows how to conduct time series cross-validation using SAS Forecast Server.  Udo replicates the example from Rob J Hyndman's Research Tips blog. Replicating the Example In order to replicate the example in Hyndman's blog, the example

The hurricane didn't get me, but Monday night's thunderstorm sure played a dirty trick. After leaving my car windows cracked open over night, I drove to work Tuesday morning feeling a little soggier by the minute.  Upon arrival at SAS, I was aghast to find the seat of my pants was soaked

We had a tornado in April, an earthquake on Tuesday, a drought all summer, and a hurricane arrives on Saturday. All I can figure is that Cary, NC has way too many sinners per capita. What's next -- pestilence? The BFD Makeover The BFD (and all SAS blogs) will now be

Tuesday's release of SAS 9.3 included the new SAS Forecast Server 4.1, which has several valuable enhancements: Combination (Ensemble) Models: A combination of forecasts using different forecasting techniques can outperform forecasts produced by using any single technique. Users can combine forecasts produced by many different models using several different combination

No, BONEZONE is not the website of wayward legislators. It is, however, a trade journal of the orthopaedic devices industry, and the Summer 2011 issue features a nice mention of Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis in an article by Tom Wallace. In "Forecasting: It's Getting Better," Tom refers to FVA

There is nothing the gambler, investor, forecaster, or Match.com dater likes as much as the sure thing. Don't we all? Back in April I stated what I claimed to be a sure thing forecast: In any group of 2 or more people, there is at least one pair of people

As organizations confront the limits of forecasting, they finally realize the folly in a blind pursuit of unachievable levels of forecast accuracy. The best accuracy we can ever hope to achieve is limited by the nature -- the forecastability -- of what we are trying to forecast. Anything better than

Have you ever wanted to look like George Clooney and get all the money, fame, and dates? I have long aspired to this. But in the great poker hand of life, I wasn't dealt an inside straight or even a nice pair. So I make do with what I've got.

The Spring 2011 issue of Foresight is now available. Here is Editor Len Tashman's preview: For forecasters, “being wrong” is the expectation; the hope is that we’re not too wrong. But admitting to our failures is never easy. The Spring 2011 issue leads off with Marcus O’Connor’s book review of