We are all modelers. Whenever you plan, you are building a model. Whenever you imagine, you are building a model. When you create, write, paint or speak, you first build in your head a model of what you want to accomplish, and then fill in the details with words, movements or other actions in order to realize that model.
Models work via a three-part structure: Input, Mechanism, and Output. When we use models, we are generally confident in only two of the three stages, and we use the process to determine the unknown stage.
The most familiar construction is where we know, or have confidence in, our inputs and our mechanism (the mechanism being the rules or algorithm that generates output from inputs), which we call “prediction”. We use this structure to predict, or forecast, a wide variety of outputs, from tomorrow’s weather to next month’s sales to next year’s election.
But prediction is not the only available model structure. Read More