Q: Do you think the forecaster should distribute forecast accuracy to stakeholders (e.g. to show how good/bad the forecast is) or do you think this will confuse stakeholders? A: This just depends what is meant by stakeholders. And what is meant by forecast accuracy. If stakeholders means those people who
In a pair of articles published in Foresight, and in his SAS/Foresight webinar "Avoidability of Forecast Error" last November, Steve Morlidge of CatchBull laid out a compelling new approach on the subject of "forecastability." It is generally agreed that the naive model (i.e. random walk or "no change" model) provides
STEM skills are essential for many of the fastest-growing and most lucrative occupations. And SAS programmers are in high demand in all fields. A number of reports have documented a critical talent shortage, especially for graduates with advanced degrees in math, computer science or computer engineering. (See Running on Empty, Report to
As teachers head into the madness of student course registration, the madness of college basketball reinforces a critical point: Data is crucial to making the picks that lead to a winning bracket, and student growth. Value-added assessment has proven reliable in determining which students are ready for their "one shining moment". This
SAS/Foresight Webinar Series On Thursday February 20, 11am ET, join Martin Joseph, Managing Owner of Rivershill Consultancy for this quarter's installment of the SAS/Foresight Webinar Series. Martin will be presenting "The Forecasting Mantra" -- a template that identifies the elements required to achieve sustained, world-class forecasting and planning excellence. He'll also
Where is global warming when you need it? Throughout much of the southeast, life has been at a standstill since midday yesterday, when 2" of snow and 20oF temperatures brought civilization to its knees. If your life, or at least your forecasting career, is at a similar standstill, make plans to
In this quarter's installment of the SAS/Foresight Webinar Series, Martin Joseph and Alec Finney of Rivershill Consultancy discuss "The Forecasting Mantra." Based on their article in the Winter 2009 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, the webinar provides a template that identifies all the elements required to achieve sustained, world-class forecasting
We ended last time having selected a cluster of surrogate products -- a subset of the original selection of like-items that had the same attributes as the new product. Judgment has been used throughout the process so far, in specification of the relevant attributes, filtering the original candidate pool of
Seems like we've been here before. It is January, so time again to announce the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For in the US. This year SAS is at #2, our fifth straight year in the top 3, over which our average rank has been 1.8. We've covered this topic
Lately, there's been lots of buzz around the logical data warehouse (LDW). In fact, Gartner is hearing LDW mentions as part of data warehouse (DW) inquiries almost 20% of the time and considers it a "megatrend." The definition usually includes some use of data virtualization or data federation capabilities to complement
Another day, another scam defrauding insurers and governments. For purposes of full disclosure, the case I'm highlighting today comes from Washington's Labor and Industries (L&I), the agency where I formerly worked and headed up fraud prevention efforts, and the investigation dates back to my time there. During my time there,
Data. Google uses ours every day, and most people aren't concerned. When our government is looking over our shoulders, however, tensions rise quickly. On the one end lies the recent scandals with the National Security Agency (NSA), which is apparently spying on you, me, and Angela Merkel. On the other lies case after case
Before that headline really scares you, let me clarify - there hasn't been a single fraud scheme that managed to pull off a $2 trillion haul (yet). However, the fact remains that as rising scams, schemes, the gray market, work under the table and good old tax evasion escalate, as
Like many of you teachers out there, I spent a lot of time recently preparing for the new school year. At home, it began with the therapeutic organization of children's rooms. As I sat amid in outgrown clothes, last year’s school work, and books to donate, I braced myself and
If you need an excuse to get out of the office and perhaps learn a thing or two this fall, here are three upcoming events: Foresight Practitioner Conference: S&OP and Collaborative Forecasting (Columbus, OH, September 25-26) From the campus of Ohio State University, Foresight's editor Len Tashman and S&OP column
As student growth or value-added measures become more prevalent in educator evaluation systems, many question how those ratings actually help teachers improve their practice. i.e. “How does a level 3 teacher become a level 4 or 5?” Robust and reliable value-added data serve as a great starting point for teachers
You’ve probably caught on by now that I live in the DC-metro area and suffer daily through the misery of congestion. Before I even reach for my keys, I check for the latest information from regional transportation agencies, especially Metro, to devise my plan of attack. Going way beyond the
SAS Forecast Server (release 12.3) is now shipping, and includes the new SAS Time Series Studio GUI. Time Series Studio (TSS), was released as "experimental" last August in 12.1, and is now in production. TSS provides an additional interface in Forecast Server, for time series data mining, exploration, and data preparation.
Mercifully, we have reached the final installment of Q&A from the June 20 Foresight-SAS webinar, "Forecast Value Added: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices." As a reminder, a recording of the webinar is available for on-demand review, and the Foresight article (upon which the webinar was based) is available for free
Q: Is the MAPE of the naive forecast the basis for understanding the forecastability of the behavior? Or are there other more in depth ways to measure the forecastability of a behavior? MAPE of the naive forecast indicates the worst you should be able to forecast the behavior. You can
With this Q&A Part 3, we are about halfway through the questions submitted during the FVA webinar. We did over 15 minutes of live Q&A at the end of the webinar, and covered many of the submitted questions at that time, however I always prefer to issue complete written responses to
Q: Could you send me the presentation? With audio if possible. If you'd like a pdf of the slides, email me directly: mike.gilliland@sas.com For the audio, the webinar recording is available for free on-demand review: FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices Q: Can we get the case study referred here
As promised in yesterday's Foresight-SAS sponsored webinar on "Forecast Value Added: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices," here is Part 1 of my written response to the over 25 questions that were submitted during the event. (Note: It may take a week or so to get through all of them.)
If an organization is spending time and money to have a forecasting process, is it not reasonable to expect the process to make the forecast more accurate and less biased (or at least not make it any worse!)? But how would we ever know what the process is accomplishing? To
Imagine a business offering a multitude of products and services that seemingly have little relationship to one another, and all are supported by different data systems. This is the plight of local governments. The products and services produced and managed by local governments range from utilities, solid waste and recycling to parks
Students with missing test scores are often highly mobile students and are more likely to be low-achieving students. It is important to include these students in any growth/value-added model to avoid selection bias, which could provide misleading growth estimates to districts, schools and teachers that serve higher populations of these
We’re just coming back from SAS Global Forum, and what a show! SAS Books was there to provide users with the highest-quality resources for learning SAS, and our users were there to tell us what new books they were most looking forward to reading. Kevin Smith's PROC TEMPLATE Made Easy:
"Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?" now available on-demand The SAS / Foresight webinar series had a rousing kickoff on April 24, with Paul Goodwin asking (and answering) the question, "Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?" The webinar is now available for free on-demand review . Be sure to stick
When you work at headquarters of the leader in advanced analytics software, you never know who you'll encounter in the lobby. It might be celebrity statistician (and New York Times FiveThirtyEight blogger) Nate Silver, of The Signal and the Noise and election forecasting fame. It might be Donald Wheeler, giant
In my last blog, I discussed the growing commitment among governors to infrastructure investment, and to coming up with innovative ways to find dollars to fund the needed improvements to the transportation network. I heard it over and over again during the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Annual Meeting in January
