IBF Scottsdale: FVA at Cardinal Health


IBF Conference Brochure CoverWhere is global warming when you need it?

Throughout much of the southeast, life has been at a standstill since midday yesterday, when 2" of snow and 20oF temperatures brought civilization to its knees. If your life, or at least your forecasting career, is at a similar standstill, make plans to join us February 23-25 for the Institute of Business Forecasting's Supply Chain Forecasting Conference in Scottsdale, AZ.

February is a great time to be in Arizona, with beautiful weather and the rattlesnakes still in hibernation. The IBF event offers a full day Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Tutorial by Mark Lawless on Sunday the 23rd, with three tracks of regular sessions Monday through Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, 9:00-9:55am, join me and Scott Finley, Manager - Advanced Analytics at Cardinal Health, for a look at Forecast Value Added (FVA) analysis. From our abstract:

Forecast Value Added (FVA) is a metric for evaluating the performance of each step and each participant in the forecasting process. FVA compares process performance to essentially “doing nothing”—telling you whether your efforts are adding value by making the forecast better, or whether you are just making things worse! This presentation provides an overview of the FVA approach, showing how to collect the data and analyze results. It includes a case study on how the Advanced Analytics group at Cardinal Health is using FVA analysis to evaluate and improve their forecasting process. You will learn:

  • What data is needed and how to calculate the forecast value added metric
  • How to use FVA to evaluate each step of process performance, identify non-value adding activities, and eliminate process waste
  • How Cardinal Health is using FVA analysis to evaluate their forecasting efforts and guide the evolution of their forecasting process

 Our Gifts to You

As an event sponsor, SAS will be showing SAS Forecasting for Desktop, and will announce the release of a new module in the Demand-Driven Forecasting component of our Supply Chain Intelligence suite of offerings. My colleagues Charlie Chase and Ed Katz will demonstrate the new module on Tuesday 10:00-10:30am.

Business Forecasting Deal book coverDemand-Driven Forecasting book coverEarly risers and the terminally hungry should stop by the SAS booth during Tuesday's breakfast hour (7:00-8:00am) to score a signed copy of The Business Forecasting Deal (the book). Then attend the demo session at 10:00 where Charlie will be signing copies of his latest book, Demand-Driven Forecasting (2nd Edition).

You'll have plenty of good reading for your flight home.


About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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