On a cold and wet December morning in 2008, at approximately 1:30 AM, I pulled into the parking lot of an abandoned supermarket in Arlington, TX. With sleet pelleting my windshield, I saw three additional sets of headlights enter into the parking lot from different directions. All three cars converged
Many vendors claim they have analytics, and a lot of users have embraced the belief that analytics is the way to go. But what does analytics really mean, especially to business users without statistics backgrounds, and how much do they need to know about analytics to be able to make
Is fraud like a snowflake, and every one is unique? Not really. There is, however, an increasing number of methods and schemes that show up and expand the range of issues we need to look for every day. To celebrate International Fraud Awareness Week this year, I'm going to spend
Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most -- human adjustments to the forecast fail to make it better. And this is why relative metrics, such as FVA, are so helpful in
For most people, this time of year means celebrating cherished, personal traditions… helping those less fortunate…flocking to stores in droves…the company holiday party… For the SAS Security Intelligence team, it means identity theft…benefits fraud…unemployment insurance fraud...insider threats. Why? Because next week is International Fraud Awareness Week! And we’re celebrating by
There are times when I harken back to the classic television show M.A.S.H. For those of you too young to remember, the story centered around a mobile Army surgical hospital in the midst of the conflict in the Korean peninsula. While they weren't the first people to see the patient, the unit
In his Spring 2014 article in Foresight, Paul Goodwin addressed the important issue of point vs. probabilistic forecasts. A point forecast is a single number (e.g., the forecast for item XYZ in December is 635 units). We are all familiar with point forecasts, as these are what's commonly produced (either
The Advanced Analytics division of SAS Research & Development has announced three Summer Fellowships in the areas of Forecasting and Econometrics. The SAS forecasting fellowships are open to doctoral candidates in mathematics, statistics, computer science, and related graduate departments in the United States. They offer the opportunity to work closely
Volatility. It’s a business reality for energy market participants and it’s been a wild ride for the oil marketing business over the past few weeks. How has your energy risk data helped you navigate the recent increase in volatility and precipitous price drop? This month, we are launching a recurring
In 2015 Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting will celebrate 10 years of publication. From high in his aerie in the Colorado Rockies, here is Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's preview of the current issue: In this 35th issue of Foresight, we revisit a topic that always generates lively and entertaining
On Thursday, October 30, 11 am ET, Aris Syntetos delivers the next installment of the Foresight/SAS Webinar Series, "Forecasting by Temporal Aggregation." Based on his article in the Summer 2014 issue of Foresight, Aris provided this preview: When we attempt to improve forecast performance we usually consider new or alternative forecasting
Part 1: The challenge and the opportunity Mental illness continues to profoundly affect the nation’s population and, for the most part, remains greatly under analyzed. This is the first entry in a series about the mental health problem in the US, and how an analytic approach can improve care for
I wanted to pass along this reminder from Pam Stroud at the International Institute of Forecasters: Grant to Promote Research on Forecasting For the twelfth year, the IIF, in collaboration with SAS®, is proud to announce financial support for research on how to improve forecasting methods and business forecasting practice.
In the summer heat, when The BFD alone isn't quite quenching your thirst for forecasting know-how, here are several other sources: CatchBlog -- by Steve Morlidge of CatchBull From his 2010 book Future Ready (co-authored with Steve Player), to his recent 4-part series in Foresight dealing with the "avoidability" of forecast
Again this year (for the 12th time), SAS Research & Development has funded two $5,000 research grants, to be awarded by the International Institute of Forecasters. Criteria for award of the grant will include likely impact on forecasting methods and business applications. Consideration will be given to new researchers in
A recent project with a supportive housing provider in New York City showed how analytics leads to insights that can change, even save, lives. The New York City Center for Innovation through Data Intelligence (CIDI) is the analytics research arm of the City’s Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services
On July 24, 10am ET, Stavros Asimakopoulos delivers the next installment of the Foresight/SAS Webinar Series, "Forecasting 'In the Pocket': Mobile Devices Can Improve Collaboration." Based on his article (co-authored with George Boretos and Constantinos Mourlas) in the Winter 2014 issue of Foresight, Stavros will discuss how smartphones, tablet computers
The healthcare big data revolution has only just begun. Current efforts percolating around the country primarily surround aggregation of clinical electronic health records (EHRs) & administrative healthcare claims. These healthcare big data initiatives are gaining traction and could produce exciting enhancements to the effectiveness and efficiency of the US healthcare
Today it is common knowledge that a classroom teacher is the single largest in-school influence on student academic growth[1]. So when South Carolina received ESEA flexibility in July, 2012, the State Department of Education immediately began an initiative empowering teachers to increase their own effectiveness. Known as the Educator Evaluation System
In 1965's Subterranean Homesick Blues, Bob Dylan taught us: You don't need a weatherman / To know which way the wind blows In 1972's You Don't Mess Around with Jim, Jim Croce taught us: You don't spit into the wind By combining these two teachings, one can logically conclude that:
In 1990, the North Carolina General Assembly created the Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission to evaluate sentencing laws and policies and recommend any modifications necessary to achieve policy goals. As part of the mandate, the General Assembly required the Sentencing Commission to develop a correctional population simulation model. The model
This is part 3 of a blog series on how Lubbock Independent School District (Lubbock ISD) uses SAS® EVAAS to improve teaching and learning by promoting self-reflection and aiding instructional and administrative decision-making. This is done in a district that, in the past decade, has experienced dramatic increases in the percentage
This is part 2 of a blog series on how Lubbock Independent School District (Lubbock ISD) uses SAS® EVAAS to improve teaching and learning by promoting self-reflection and aiding instructional and administrative decision-making. This is done in a district that, in the past decade, has experienced dramatic increases in the
Improving teacher effectiveness is no simple task. Whether a part of a formal evaluation system or for formative feedback, looking at student growth data can be a valuable part of the development process for teachers and administrators. Lubbock Independent School District (Lubbock ISD) uses SAS® EVAAS to improve teaching and
As a follow up to my previous post that described analytics in one word, I decided to revisit my choice of the word "strategic" with a video. If the adage "a picture is worth a thousand words" is true, you'll like this version even better than the original. Watch the video
Imagine this scenario: Every device we encounter in our day-to-day routine – from our refrigerators and automobiles to our water and gas meters – has embedded sensors that read real-time information and generate unfathomable amounts of data. Now take this scenario one step further. Imagine what kinds of insights we’d
Q: How would you set the target for demand planners: all products at 0.7? All at practical limit (0.5)? A: In principle, forecasts are capable of being brought to the practical limit of an RAE of 0.5. Whether it is sensible to attempt to do this for all products irrespective
Q: How important is it to recognize real trend change in noisy data? A: It is very important. In fact the job of any forecast algorithm is to predict the signal – whether it is trending or not – and to ignore the noise. Unfortuantely this is not easy to
Q: Do you think the forecaster should distribute forecast accuracy to stakeholders (e.g. to show how good/bad the forecast is) or do you think this will confuse stakeholders? A: This just depends what is meant by stakeholders. And what is meant by forecast accuracy. If stakeholders means those people who
In a pair of articles published in Foresight, and in his SAS/Foresight webinar "Avoidability of Forecast Error" last November, Steve Morlidge of CatchBull laid out a compelling new approach on the subject of "forecastability." It is generally agreed that the naive model (i.e. random walk or "no change" model) provides
