In 1965's Subterranean Homesick Blues, Bob Dylan taught us:

You don't need a weatherman / To know which way the wind blows

In 1972's You Don't Mess Around with Jim, Jim Croce taught us:

You don't spit into the wind

By combining these two teachings, one can logically conclude that:

You don't need a weatherman to tell you where not to spit

But the direction of expectoration is the least of my current worries. What I really want to know is, WTH does it mean when the weatherman says there is a 70% chance of rain?

Greg Fishel, WRAL-TV Chief Meteorologist to the Rescue

I am pleased to announce that Greg Fishel, local celebrity and weather forecaster extrordinaire, will be speaking at the Analytics2014 conference at the Bellagio in Las Vegas (October 20-21). Greg (shown here with several groupies during a recent visit to the SAS campus) will discuss "Weather Forecasts: Deterministic, Probabilistic or Both?" Here is his abstract:

The use of probabilities in weather forecasts has always been problematic, in that there are as many interpretations of how to use probabilistic forecasts as there are interpreters. However, deterministic forecasts carry their own set of baggage, in that they often overpromise and underdeliver when it comes to forecast information critical for planning by various users. In recent years, an ensemble approach to weather forecasting has been adopted by many in the field of meteorology. This presentation will explore the various ways in which this ensemble technique is being used, and discuss the pros and cons of an across-the-board implementation of this forecast philosophy with the general public.

Please join us in Las Vegas, where I hope Greg will answer that other troubling weather question, can I drive a convertible fast enough in a rainstorm to not get wet. (Note, Mythbusters determined this to be "Plausible but not recommended.")