Let's end 2012-Q1 with a graphic editorial comment: Forecast Accuracy vs. Effort Using a naïve model will achieve a certain level of forecast accuracy. That accuracy may be high if the demand is smooth and stable, or low if the demand is erratic. But you achieve this level of accuracy with virtually no

Apparently the prolonged use of OxyContin will give you a pompous and surley demeanor, and make you say a lot of really ignorant things. So I implore you, dear readers, to withhold your use of such a substance, preserve your good attitude and brain cells, and participate in a research study

Is there anything you'd like to tell your management?  Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, I mean is there anything you'd like to tell your management that isn't anatomically impossible? If so, please join me and Ryan Rickard, Sr. Supply Chain Manager at Newell Rubbermaid, for our

Managing expectations for forecast accuracy is very important, as often those expectations are extreme after management invests in a new system. Software vendors have also been known to make overly (choose one: optimistic? sanguine? idyllic?) accuracy claims as part of their sales pitch. Of course, there is no arbitrary level of accuracy

My Google Alert on "forecastability" paid off with a gem this weekend, in the blog post "Forecastability and Over Fitting" by Shaun Snapp on SCM Focus.  I was not previously familiar with Shaun or this site, but found a lot to like -- in content and attitude. In his post, Shaun kindly

Sometimes you can't forecast worth a darn because something is just not forecastable. Being "unforecastable" doesn't mean you can't create a forecast, because you can always create a forecast.  It just means there is so much instability or randomness in your demand patterns that even sophisticated forecasting methods don't help

Life Lesson from a Black Eye I'm fond of arguing that Plato is the father of philosophy.  Apparently that is the wrong argument to make, in a bar, with a stranger,  when said stranger takes the opposing view.  (And I thought politics, religion, and his mother were the only things never

Among the suitable-for-blog-publication-without-risking-my-job definitions of masochism is this: A willingness or tendency to subject oneself to unpleasant or trying experiences So to be a forecaster, must you also be a masochist? Few people enjoy the difficulties and degradation that go with being a forecaster, so few are willing to do it

A common mistake in bad or misused software is choosing a forecasting model based solely on the model’s “fit to history” (often referred to as “best fit” or “pick best” functionality). The software provides (or the forecaster builds) several competing models which are then evaluated against recent history. The model

Of course, forecasting the stock market is not perfectly analogous to forecasting demand for a product.  The asking price for a stock is largely "anchored" by the price of its most recent trades.  While market values may appear to randomly drift up and down, or in a general direction, we generally

In this second of three flash reports from last week's Analytics2011 conference, we hear about a favorite topic of mine -- the relationship between demand volatility and forecastability. Rob Miller of Avantor Performance Materials, on Forecastability and Demand Volatility The "comet chart," illustrating the relationship between demand volatility and forecast