Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
The war of business forecasting ideas is being waged in the trenches of the online discussion groups. Where else can great disagreement be exacerbated (and sometimes even resolved) by often civilized discussion, with participants from across the globe? One of the popular groups for business forecasting practitioners is Demand Planning, Sales Forecasting,
Editor Len Tashman's Preview of Foresight Foresight has always presented its methods-based articles as either tutorials, which introduce and illustrate a methodology in nontechnical language, or as case studies, with a focus on the practical issues and challenges in generating forecasts. We lead off this issue with two practical issues articles. First, Stephan
Compare it to predicting the economy. So concludes an ABC News Australia story by finance reporter Sue Lannin, entitled "Economic forecasts no better than a random walk." The story covers a recent apology by the International Monetary Fund over its estimates for troubled European nations, and an admission by the
If you happen to be in Raleigh, NC next Tuesday evening, please come out for the APICS Triangle Chapter professional development meeting, 6:00-8:00 pm. While I can't make any promises about the caliber of the evening's speaker (me), you are assured a good meal and good conversation with representatives from
Popularized rankings of "best places to work" (such as in 2012, SAS ranked #1 in the world in Great Places to Work®'s list of Multinational Workplaces) tend to focus on why it is so great to be an employee. As a potential customer of one of these best places to work, why
The Institute of Business Forecasting has named Larry Lapide, Research Affiliate at MIT, as recipient of its "Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning" award -- a much deserved honor! Larry has written a quarterly column for Journal of Business Forecasting for 15 years, and I've been a longtime follower.
The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting is led by two of my favorites in the forecasting world, Robert Fildes and Sven Crone. The Centre is home to cutting edge research and consulting, covering the range of forecasting models and methods, as well as real-world forecasting process. The Centre has announced a
Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as well as fancy methods, and that combining (averaging) forecasts, also known as "ensemble forecasting," will usually result in more accurate predictions than the individual methods being averaged. We saw a good demonstration of these principles in Tuesday's election
The 2012 US Presidential race comes to a close today (thankfully), and there is no shortage of wacky indicators predicting the winner: Iowa Electronic Markets FiveThirtyEight PollyVote University of Colorado In primitive times a diviner could foretell the future by poisoning a chicken -- whether it lived or died provided
Editor Len Tashman's Preview of Foresight The importance of trust in the dissemination of forecasts through an organization cannot be overstated. Lack of trust, due in no small measure to the biases arising from “silo mentalities” and misplaced incentives, can and too often does undermine the forecasting process. Foresight has
In 2011 I came across Shaun Snapp’s blog (scmfocus.com), and immediately took a liking. In particular, I was drawn to his independent and critical tone, and a willingness to challenge the “objectivity” of many commentators and advisors in the forecasting industry. He also takes a reasoned look at the common
Pam Stroud of the International Institute of Forecasters has just announced an extension of the deadline for SAS/IIF forecasting research grant proposals to October 26, 2012. More details on the IIF website.
Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like myself. In an attempt to make this field interesting to people who aren't so dismal by nature, our friends at PollyVote Election Forecasting ask the question: Could you be President of the United States? The PollyVote project is
Is there a forecasting problem you'd like to attack, and wouldn't mind a little financial support to do it? If so, the SAS/IIF Grant to Support Research on Forecasting may be just what you need to get started. For the tenth year, in collaboration with the International Institute of Forecasters,
The Perils Revisited A few posts ago I warned of the perils of forecasting benchmarks, and why they should not be used to set your forecasting performance objectives: Can you trust the data? Is measurement consistent across the respondents? Is the comparison relevant? In addition to a general suspicion about
Leaving Las Vegas Prince Harry, who recently gambled away a handful of the royal family jewels during a high-stakes billiards game, doesn't have to be the only person to leave Las Vegas with some important lessons learned. You can, too, by attending the Analytics2012 conference at Caesar's Palace, October 8-9. Learnings
Uncontrolled product proliferation can have bad consequences, and these are well recognized. There is certainly extra cost and complexity in managing more SKUs (rather than fewer SKUs). And it is unlikely that each new offering adds entirely incremental volume. Instead, the increased product overlap just leads to increased self-cannibalization. We
US Presidential Race Going to the Dogs Mitt Romney transporting his dog on the roof rack. Barack Obama eating dog meat as a child in Indonesia. Former candidate Rick Santorum overwrought about man-dog love. Is this what the US Presidential race has turned into -- one dog attack after another? Back in
Free The BFD The BFD has been on a short hiatus, fending off potential litigation with the organizing committee of a quadrennial international sporting event that isn't the World Cup. Per the advice of SAS Legal, I've had to make a few changes to the May 30 post, now entitled "Forecasting
Benchmarks of forecasting performance are available from several sources, including professional organizations and journals, academic research, and private consulting/benchmarking organizations. But there are several reasons why industry forecasting benchmarks should not be used for setting your own forecasting performance objectives. 1) Can you trust the data? Are the numbers based
My Brush With Glory The 2012 Summer [quadrennial international sporting event that isn't the World Cup] in London is just around the corner, and it's sure to be an exciting time for all. I had the good fortune to be living in the great state of Utah during the 2002 Winter [quadrennial international sporting event that
SAS Dress Code In addition to providing great software for forecasting (and business analytics in general), SAS is also renowned as a great place to work. (See #1, #1, and #3 rankings the past three years in the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For.) Part of this greatness is due
First: A Report from the 67th Pine Tree Festival and Southeast Timber Expo Back in March The BFD investigated the topic of Google-ing yourself (aka egosurfing). I reported on finding a namesake in show business, a self-described "Magic Mike Gilliland" and his sidekick Lollipop the Clown. I attempted to disparage
Pet lovers do the most incredible things. My friend Grace told me she trained her pet rabbit to walk on a leash. I said, "That's amazing Grace -- I never heard of such a thing!!! I thought rabbits could only hop." Rest assured there are no dogs (cats or rabbits
Have you seen this week's news item on "tanning mom" Patricia Krentcil, the New Jersey mother accused of sunburning her young daughter in a tanning booth? Now I'm as big a fan of diversity as the next guy, and lovingly embrace people of every visible color (although I do find House Speaker John Boehner's orange a
Can you explain the "random error" in your forecasts? This question was posed two weeks ago by Sam Iosevich, Managing Principal at Prognos, during his presentation at the INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research. Sam stated that if your planners have knowledge that helps explain the "random error" in
Last week's INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research drew over 700 attendees to Huntington Beach, CA. I had the pleasure of serving on the conference selection committee, and wanted to share this content from one of our invited speakers, Kean Chew of HAVI Global Solutions. The Numbers Behind Burgers
The April 2012 issue of ORMS Today contains a piece on "How analytics enhance the guest experience at Walt Disney World," by Pete Buczkowski and Hai Chu. While many of us are used to forecasting just one or two things (such as unit sales or revenue), Pete and Hai illustrate
Are you a prefectionist when it comes to forecasting, or any kind of data analysis? If so, perhaps my SAS colleague Gary Cokins can cure you. Gary is a prolific writer and contributor in the performance management field, and describes himself as a "ready-fire-aim" kind of guy. By this he means
Being a Hollywood celebrity means plenty of perks in addition to willing groupies. For example, the 2012 Oscars Nominee Gift Bag (valued at over $62,000) included a 5-day elephant safari in Botswana ($15,580), Eminence organic body scrub (with virgin coconut oil and raw sugar cane, $48), Naughty Bits Brownies ($50), and a
