My Google Alert on "forecastability" paid off with a gem this weekend, in the blog post "Forecastability and Over Fitting" by Shaun Snapp on SCM Focus.  I was not previously familiar with Shaun or this site, but found a lot to like -- in content and attitude.

In his post, Shaun kindly cites the coin-flipping example from The Business Forecasting Deal (the book), which I used to illustrate the nonsense of fitting a model to the random pattern of Heads and Tails in order to forecast future flips.  Says Shaun,

While Michael's example is deliberately ridiculous, this is no joke.  People attempt to forecast unforecastable things all the time, and to use a lot of math, or smoke and mirrors to cover up the fact that the item of interest is not forecastable.  This is one of the reasons why Wall Street employs so many mathematicians.  Complicated math is in essence the new mysticism.

Shaun ends with another nice potshot, over a photo of Manhattan,

Today, going to a Greek mountaintop for projections is considered quaint, and something to be laughed at, and of course we are a scientific society, which is why we go to a magical island for our fake forecasts.

Please take a few moments away from your busy online shopping this week, and check out Shaun's post.