Would you buy something that doesn’t have demonstrable Return on Investment? Of course you would! Whether you realize it or not, you do this every time you buy software. There is no proven ROI. Maybe this is just a pet peeve of mine. Maybe I care too much about cause

I’m back from a week of vacation in Michigan and bursting with new topics, but will have to get to those next week (still playing catch-up in my day job). I do, however, have the pleasure to announce the publication of a new book by my friend and colleague Charlie

The SAS internal discussion boards are always full of fascinating topics, some of which are even decipherable to a non-Ph.D. in statistics like me. A recent topic involved how to calculate the benefits of good forecasting software, and my colleague Robin Way offered an interesting perspective that he allowed me

Personally, I don’t get Twitter. I have an account (mvgilliland) for anyone interested in not hearing any tweets from me. I follow a few people and have a few followers (including some that aren't porn bots) -- but what is the point? Does anyone really care that I’m out hanging

The Summer 2009 issue of Foresight is now available, and features a section on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast.” Here is Editor Len Tashman’s preview: Are traditional forecasting tools suitable for predicting complex systems like the economy and the global climate? Basically, no, argue David Orrell and Patrick McSharry: such

On a Monday July 20 segment of consumer advocate Clark Howard’s radio show, Clark discussed the common practice of hidden payments to influential bloggers. Apparently these high-tech shills pocket the payola, and then make favorable postings about particular products or services. According to Clark, there are new rules to prevent

Aren’t the internets wonderful? Just today I was trying to find the antonym of “naïve” and came across several terrific choices (sophisticated, worldly, well-informed, and intelligent) and one that didn’t make any sense (svelte???). However, upon further review at Merriam-Webster.com, I discovered that in addition to slender, lithe, and sleek

In April 2009, Google published a draft research paper “Predicting the Present with Google Trends,” by Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian and Decision Support Engineering Analyst Hyungyoung Choi. The paper is available for download in an April 2 posting by Varian and Choy on the Google Research Blog that has

With apologies to Johnnie Cochran and Joyce Kilmer : “If the model do fit, it don’t prove ****” This was the warning from Trick #1. As a forecaster your job is to produce forecasts – as good as they can reasonably be expected to be – not to fit models

The Spring 2009 Foresight feature on assessing forecastability is a must-read for anyone who gets yelled at for having lousy forecasts. (It should also be read by those who do the yelling, but you’d have to be living in Neverland to believe that will ever happen.) As I promised in

Today I welcome guest blogger Len Tashman, Editor of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. I’ve been a big fan of Foresight since its inception in 2005, and the Spring 2009 issue contains a special feature on a topic close to my heart -- assessing forecastability. Here is Len’s

Tricks aren’t just for kids (or Louisiana senators or New York governors for that matter). Tricks are the lifeblood for many a forecasting software salesperson. Why admit that forecasting is difficult, that most things can’t be forecast as accurately as we would like, or that your software has the statistical