The Institute of Business Forecasting's FVA blog series continued on March 2, with my interview of Steve Morlidge of CatchBull. Steve's research (and his articles in Foresight) have been a frequent subject of BFD blog posts over the last couple of years (e.g. The "Avoidability of Forecast Error (4 parts),
Editor Len Tashman's Preview of the Spring issue of Foresight The Special Feature article of this 37th issue of Foresight – From Sales and Operations Planning to Business Integration – comes about through a rare but effective collaboration between an academic and a practitioner. The coauthors are Mark Moon, head
When I visit with customers or potential clients, they often ask, "Where should I start in order to get a handle on my supply chain?" There is no clear and concise answer, but I usually say "Follow the inventory!" Inventory is a result of decisions made, not the cause. When you
“Begin with the end in mind” - Habit #2 from Stephen Covey’s ‘Highly Effective People’. The Edge Foundation is based on the premise of: “To arrive at the edge of the world's knowledge, seek out the most complex and sophisticated minds, put them in a room together, and have them
The Institute of Business Forecasting's FVA blog series continued in January, with my interview of Shaun Snapp, founder and editor of SCM Focus. Some of Shaun's answers surprised me, for example, that he doesn't compare performance to a naïve model (which I see as the most fundamental FVA comparison). But he went
Charlie Chase is considered an expert in sales forecasting, market response modeling, econometrics and supply chain management. Now he's sharing some of his expertise in his Business Knowledge Series (BKS) course, Best Practices in Demand-Driven Forecasting. I had the chance to ask him some questions about his course and the
Once upon a time: The toy industry has invited me to the world‘s largest toy fair, which took place recently in the city of Nuremberg. With close to 3,000 exhibitors the toy fair is bigger than ever before. Success is the theme of the event, and most German retailers cannot complain with consecutive
*** We interrupt discussion of James H. Lorie's 1957 article with this important announcement *** Hot off the wire, here is editor Len Tashman's preview of the Winter 2015 issue of Foresight: Foresight kicks off its 10th year with the publication of a new survey of business forecasters: Improving Forecast Quality in
We asked our partners at the Cornell Center for Hospitality Research to poll the research faculty at the Hotel School to understand their guidance about what to expect in 2015. We were also able to get a preview of what the faculty will be working on in terms of research
In December the Institute of Business Forecasting published the first of a new blog series on Forecast Value Added. Each month I will be interviewing an industry forecasting practitioner (or consultant/vendor) about their use of FVA analysis. The December interview featured Jonathon Karelse, co-founder of NorthFind Partners. Among his key
Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most -- human adjustments to the forecast fail to make it better. And this is why relative metrics, such as FVA, are so helpful in
I love Christmas, but there is one thing I never seem to get right: the office Secret Santa. Every year I draw someone I’ve barely met and fruitlessly dig around for clues – only to find myself hastily wrapping a scented candle/novelty mug at the eleventh hour. Merry Christmas Sandra
In recent times, Britain has increasingly developed an "inquiry culture." Whenever there’s malpractice or a scandal – be it the Leveson inquiry or the recent investigation into the Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust – an inquiry serves to give citizens, public leaders and governing bodies an explanation of how and
When I visit with customers or potential clients, they often ask, "Where do I start in order to get a handle on my supply chain?" There is no clear and concise answer, but I usually say "Follow the inventory!" Inventory is a result of decisions made. It is not the
Stress testing is not new to the risk world but has been a major focus since the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). For a number of years now, stress testing has helped analytical specialists quantify various aspects of potential loss. What is new is the introduction of regulatory stress tests which
Because you are already halfway there and you should want the entire process to be data-driven, not just the historical reporting and analysis. You are making decisions and using data to support those decisions, but you are leaving value on the table if the analytics don't carry through to forecasting. In the
In the summer heat, when The BFD alone isn't quite quenching your thirst for forecasting know-how, here are several other sources: CatchBlog -- by Steve Morlidge of CatchBull From his 2010 book Future Ready (co-authored with Steve Player), to his recent 4-part series in Foresight dealing with the "avoidability" of forecast
Here is editor Len Tashman's preview of the new Spring 2014 issue of Foresight. In particular note the new article by Steve Morlidge of CatchBull, reporting on an analysis of eight B2B and B2C companies, which we'll discuss in a separate post. An organization’s collaboration in forecasting and planning has
Principle 2: Data architecture and IT infrastructure – A bank should design, build and maintain data architecture and IT infrastructure which fully supports its risk data aggregation capabilities and risk reporting practices not only in normal times but also during times of stress or crisis, while still meeting the other
Engaging the sales force in forecasting sounds like a good idea, doesn't it? Compared to everyone else in the organization, don't sales people have the closest contact with our customers? Therefore, shouldn't they know better than anyone else our customers' future behavior? There are at least three problems with assuming
Are retailers suffering a skills shortage when it comes to analytics? Nikki Baird from Retail Systems Research (RSR Group) offers some intriguing observations about the critical analytical talent shortage facing the retail industry in a recent article, “Where Have All the Data Scientists Gone? SAS Analyst Day Report Out.” Her observations
In this quarter's installment of the SAS/Foresight Webinar Series, Martin Joseph and Alec Finney of Rivershill Consultancy discuss "The Forecasting Mantra." Based on their article in the Winter 2009 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, the webinar provides a template that identifies all the elements required to achieve sustained, world-class forecasting
We ended last time having selected a cluster of surrogate products -- a subset of the original selection of like-items that had the same attributes as the new product. Judgment has been used throughout the process so far, in specification of the relevant attributes, filtering the original candidate pool of
How do you build a forecast when you have no historical data? This is a recurring challenge for businesses that update their product offerings, and a recurring question in online forecasting discussion groups (e.g. this one on LinkedIn). The bad news is that you probably can't expect to achieve highly
While fancy new forecasting models will always be of interest to researchers, there is plenty of really interesting and practical new work being led by forecasting practitioners. Last month Steve Morlidge (who spent 30 years at Unilever, now with CatchBull), shared his promising new approach on the “Avoidability of Forecast
As the “Year of Statistics” comes to a close, I write this blog in support of the many statisticians who carefully fulfil their analysis tasks day by day, and to defend what may appear to be demanding behavior when it comes to data requirements. How do statisticians get this reputation? Are we
Forecasting Support Systems (FSS) – essentially, decision support systems for forecasters – are being given increasing scrutiny in forecasting circles, including our recent half-dozen articles in Foresight. Additionally this year, there has been a special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting focused on the topic. Keith Ord and
SAS/Foresight Webinar Series The next installment of the quarterly SAS/Foresight webinar series is next Thursday, September 19, at 1:00pm EDT. Demand and Supply Integration: Achieving S&OP's Strategic Promise Join Dr. Mark Moon, Department of Marketing and Supply Chain Management at the University of Tennessee, to discover the benefits of integrating demand
If you need an excuse to get out of the office and perhaps learn a thing or two this fall, here are three upcoming events: Foresight Practitioner Conference: S&OP and Collaborative Forecasting (Columbus, OH, September 25-26) From the campus of Ohio State University, Foresight's editor Len Tashman and S&OP column
If you are looking to find a job in business forecasting, or trying to fill one, there are many online resources available: Professional Organizations Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning - Very active searchable list of currently available jobs in forecasting and planning, from entry level to executive. Employers post
