Tag: FVA

Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Nice article on FVA now available online

What is Forecast Value Added? Please enhance your Valentine's Day with this treat offered up by the Journal of Business Forecasting. Eric Wilson's very nice discussion of Forecast Value Added, originally published in the Spring 2016 issue of JBF, is now available online: "What is Forecast Value Added?" Eric also

Advanced Analytics | Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 11 of 12)

Aphorism 3: Organizational Policies and Politics Can Have a Significant Impact on Forecasting Effectiveness We just saw how demand volatility reduces forecastability. Yet our sales, marketing, and financial incentives are usually designed to add volatility. We reward sales spikes and record weeks, rather than smooth, stable, predictable growth. The forecast

Advanced Analytics | Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 8 of 12)

Typical Business Forecasting Process Let’s look at a typical business forecasting process. Historical data is fed into forecasting software which generates the "statistical" forecast. An analyst can review and override the forecast, which then goes into a more elaborate collaborative or consensus process for further adjustment. Many organizations also have

Advanced Analytics | Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Brilliant forecasting article from 1957!!! (Part 2)

Combining Statistical Analysis with Subjective Judgment (continued) After summarily dismissing regression analysis and correlation analysis as panaceas for the business forecasting problem, Lorie turns next to "salesmen's forecasts."* He first echoes the assumption that we still hear today: This technique of sales forecasting has much to commend it. It is based

Advanced Analytics | Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Gaming the forecast

Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most -- human adjustments to the forecast fail to make it better. And this is why relative metrics, such as FVA, are so helpful in

Mike Gilliland 0
Upcoming forecasting events

SAS/Foresight Webinar Series On Thursday February 20, 11am ET, join Martin Joseph, Managing Owner of Rivershill Consultancy for this quarter's installment of the SAS/Foresight Webinar Series. Martin will be presenting "The Forecasting Mantra" -- a template that identifies the elements required to achieve sustained, world-class forecasting and planning excellence. He'll also

Mike Gilliland 0
IBF Scottsdale: FVA at Cardinal Health

Where is global warming when you need it? Throughout much of the southeast, life has been at a standstill since midday yesterday, when 2" of snow and 20oF temperatures brought civilization to its knees. If your life, or at least your forecasting career, is at a similar standstill, make plans to

Mike Gilliland 0
Process Control Methods in Business Forecasting

While fancy new forecasting models will always be of interest to researchers, there is plenty of really interesting and practical new work being led by forecasting practitioners. Last month Steve Morlidge (who spent 30 years at Unilever, now with CatchBull), shared his promising new approach on the “Avoidability of Forecast

Mike Gilliland 0
The "avoidability" of forecast error (Part 4)

The Empirical Evidence Steve Morlidge presents results from two test datasets (the first with high levels of manual intervention, the second with intermittent demand patterns), intended to challenge the robustness of the avoidability principle. The first dataset contained one year of weekly forecasts for 124 product SKUs at a fast-moving consumer

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecast Value Added Q&A (Part 7)

Mercifully, we have reached the final installment of Q&A from the June 20 Foresight-SAS webinar, "Forecast Value Added: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices." As a reminder, a recording of the webinar is available for on-demand review, and the Foresight article (upon which the webinar was based) is available for free

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