Online Forecast Value Added course May 7-8

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Portrait of Chip Wells

Chip Wells, PhD

The SAS Business Knowledge Series now offers an online version of the "Forecast Value Added Analysis" course, taught via live web in two afternoon sessions, May 7-8. The instructor is my colleague Chip Wells, who expanded our original 1/2 day FVA workshop with new material, examples, and exercises based on his experience across the chemical, energy, financial, healthcare, and transportation industries. I attended Chip's initial "test teach," and the course looks great!

Chip holds a PhD in Economics from North Carolina State University, and is co-author of the book Applied Data Mining for Forecasting Using SAS. In addition to teaching forecasting and data mining courses for the SAS Education Division, Chip also serves as an Analytic Consultant for the SAS Advanced Analytics Lab.

From the course description:

Forecast Value Added (FVA) is the change in a forecasting performance metric (such as MAPE or bias) that can be attributed to a particular step or participant in the forecasting process. FVA analysis is used to identify those process activities that are failing to make the forecast better (or may even be making it worse). This course provides step-by-step guidelines for conducting FVA analysis to identify and eliminate the waste, inefficiency, and worst practices in your forecasting process. The result can be better forecasts, with fewer resources and less management time spent on forecasting.

       Learn how to

  • map your forecasting process
  • gather, organize, and store required data
  • determine the volatility and forecastability of your demand patterns
  • visualize the data
  • create the "comet chart" relating forecast accuracy to volatility
  • analyze the data using simple methods from statistical process control
  • identify worst practices and other non-value adding activities
  • report FVA results
  • communicate results to management
  • eliminate wasted efforts and streamline your forecasting process
  • set reasonable forecasting performance objectives and expectations.

Who should attend
Forecasters, demand planners, and business analysts in any industry, as well as managers overseeing the business forecasting function

The live web course will be held Thursday and Friday, May 7-8, from 1:00 - 4:30pm EDT each afternoon. The cost is $825 USD, and attendees earn 1.7 EPTO. (Register by adding the course to your cart at the bottom of the page. See also the Course Outline tab for additional information.)

This course does not require knowledge of SAS software, but you should know very basic statistical concepts like mean and standard deviation, randomness, and variability.

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About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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