On Friday Nov 27, 2:00pm GMT (9:00am EST in the US), Robert Fildes is presenting his latest research in the webinar "What do we need to know about Forecast Value Added?" This is part of the Lancaster University Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting's "CMAF Friday Forecasting Talks." Here is the link to register.
Robert is Distinguished Professor of Management Science at Lancaster, a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and Director of the CMAF. His long list of accomplishments include co-founding (with Scott Armstrong and Spyros Makridakis) the Journal of Forecasting in 1981, and the International Journal of Forecasting in 1985, serving as IJF's editor-in-chief for 10 years. Either alone or in collaboration with Paul Goodwin and others, Robert has contributed fundamental research in many areas, including judgmental forecasting, comparative evaluation of forecasting methods, and design of forecasting systems.
Forecast value added is a phrase now very much part of the organizational understanding needed to improve forecasting practice and to select between alternative forecasting methods. One of its more important applications is to understand the improved accuracy achieved by the common practice in demand planning of adjusting a statistical forecasting method based on information gathered through the sales and operations planning process. Various past studies have analysed the results of this adjustment process. This presentation considers a range of data sources to provide insight into the circumstance where gains have been achieved. We identify the key questions facing any organization where FVA of expert judgmental adjustment is part of the process. But be warned, the conclusions will not be unequivocal; FVA is a complex area and there remains a lot to be learnt and much to be done if organizations are going to develop effective demand planning processes.
I'll be setting the stage for Robert with a very brief "Introduction to FVA Analysis," and then we'll hear the latest updates from his FVA research.
Please join us Friday, and at future events in this valuable webinar series.