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Mike Gilliland 0
The Forecaster as The Confidence Man

Everyone is familiar with The Confidence Man. This person can spout any sort of nonsense and easily demonstrable lies, and yet 40% of the people still believe him. The Confidence Man exposes a curious characteristic about human behavior: If you make your assertions with extreme confidence, no matter how obviously

Advanced Analytics | Analytics | Data for Good | Data Visualization
Melanie Carey 0
Are your hospital resources at risk of hitting capacity?

How have healthcare providers and governmental agencies predicted the fast-changing, potentially exponential increase in the need for medical services and equipment through the various stages of the COVID-19 pandemic? Mathematical techniques that attempt to model and understand the likely spread of the disease have been instrumental. The SEIR model is

Advanced Analytics | Analytics | Artificial Intelligence | Data for Good | Data Visualization | Machine Learning
Carlos Pinheiro 0
Mobility tracing: Helping local authorities in the fight against COVID-19

The current state of policy enforcement during an infectious disease pandemic is mostly reactive. Public health officials track changes in active cases, identify hot-spots and enforce containment policies primarily based on geographic proximity. By combining telecommunications data -- which we turn into mobility information -- with public health data of

Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Preview of Foresight (Summer 2020)

Following is editor-in-chief Len Tashman's preview of the Summer 2020 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight (Summer 2020) The Summer 2020 issue of Foresight—number 58 in this, our fifteenth anniversary year—addresses fundamental issues related to (a) the criteria for choosing among forecasting methods, (b)

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