Q: Company always try to forecast 12 or 24m ahead. Whether we should track accuracy of 1m/3m/ 6m or x month forecast, does that depend on lead time? How to determine out of these 12/24 months, which month should we track accuracy? Correct, forecast performance is usually evaluated against the
A good chunk of the SAS year revolves around SAS Global Forum. Pre-conference, everyone is busy polishing presentations and planning meetings. Post-conference is the best—attendees come back to Cary with heads full of customer ideas to implement and notebooks full of contacts to follow up on. One user's request found its
A few weeks ago I found myself in a room full of fellow transportation geeks (a term I use with great respect) at the annual American Association of State and Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Washington Briefing. One panel in particular really got the room buzzing with talk about the transportation
The one-number forecasting concept has been debated for years. Advocates argue that having different groups within the same organization working to different forecasts is insane. You can't have the supply chain building to X, the sales force selling to Y, and the financial folks counting on revenue of Z. This
There is a well recognized phenomenon that combining forecasts, derived from different methods using different sources of information, can improve forecast accuracy. This approach, sometimes called "ensemble forecasting," is available in SAS Forecast Server. Per Scott Armstrong's review of 57 studies on combining forecasts, "the combined forecast can be better
The Institute of Business Forecasting has named Larry Lapide, Research Affiliate at MIT, as recipient of its "Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning" award -- a much deserved honor! Larry has written a quarterly column for Journal of Business Forecasting for 15 years, and I've been a longtime follower.
This is a dramatic interpretation of an actual conversation I recently had with the CIO of one of North Carolina’s leading cities. We discussed his experience using data quality, data integration, business intelligence and analytics in the daily operation of the city. I may have taken some...well, a lot of
My Brush With Glory The 2012 Summer [quadrennial international sporting event that isn't the World Cup] in London is just around the corner, and it's sure to be an exciting time for all. I had the good fortune to be living in the great state of Utah during the 2002 Winter [quadrennial international sporting event that
First: A Report from the 67th Pine Tree Festival and Southeast Timber Expo Back in March The BFD investigated the topic of Google-ing yourself (aka egosurfing). I reported on finding a namesake in show business, a self-described "Magic Mike Gilliland" and his sidekick Lollipop the Clown. I attempted to disparage
Local governments are not immune to the rising demand for more accountability in government run services and programs, and the expenditure of public funds. Elected officials and citizens alike want to know what these programs accomplish for the public investment made. To date, the response to these questions and demands has been
Managing expectations for forecast accuracy is very important, as often those expectations are extreme after management invests in a new system. Software vendors have also been known to make overly (choose one: optimistic? sanguine? idyllic?) accuracy claims as part of their sales pitch. Of course, there is no arbitrary level of accuracy
My Google Alert on "forecastability" paid off with a gem this weekend, in the blog post "Forecastability and Over Fitting" by Shaun Snapp on SCM Focus. I was not previously familiar with Shaun or this site, but found a lot to like -- in content and attitude. In his post, Shaun kindly
This week brought big news of one of the most cruel and heartless tyrants of the 21st century. This man is known for narcissistic behavior, surrounding himself with a cadre of beautiful women, sleeping in a different place every night, picking new favorites each week, and bringing tears and untold suffering
The highway system traversing the United States quietly hit a milestone last month with the 55th anniversary of the Federal Aid Highway Act. In 1956 President Eisenhower had a vision for our nation’s infrastructure; he knew that building an interstate highway system was vital, and expressed that “Together, the united
Tuesday's release of SAS 9.3 included the new SAS Forecast Server 4.1, which has several valuable enhancements: Combination (Ensemble) Models: A combination of forecasts using different forecasting techniques can outperform forecasts produced by using any single technique. Users can combine forecasts produced by many different models using several different combination
As organizations confront the limits of forecasting, they finally realize the folly in a blind pursuit of unachievable levels of forecast accuracy. The best accuracy we can ever hope to achieve is limited by the nature -- the forecastability -- of what we are trying to forecast. Anything better than
Have you ever wanted to look like George Clooney and get all the money, fame, and dates? I have long aspired to this. But in the great poker hand of life, I wasn't dealt an inside straight or even a nice pair. So I make do with what I've got.
The Spring 2011 issue of Foresight is now available. Here is Editor Len Tashman's preview: For forecasters, “being wrong” is the expectation; the hope is that we’re not too wrong. But admitting to our failures is never easy. The Spring 2011 issue leads off with Marcus O’Connor’s book review of
We're having an early spring in North Carolina. Trees are budding, flowers are blooming, and the warmer temperatures make even a pistol whipping more enjoyable. What better way to take advantage of the new season than filling your spring with educational opportunities in forecasting. Plan in Perfect Sync with Customer
I think being greedy is a virtue – especially when you are trying to feed your intellectual curiosity! You can satiate that hunger at SAS Global Forum, which offers an unlimited buffet of thought-provoking ideas and discussions. To give you a glimpse of what to expect at Las Vegas this
If outliers could scream, would we be so cavalier about removing them from our history, and excluding them from our statistical forecasting models? Well, maybe we would – if they screamed all the time, and for no good reason. (This sentiment is adapted from my favorite of the many Deep
Was it the economy? the timing? the location? or the brilliant and good looking Forum panel? That will be for history (or you) to decide. What we do know is that is that the Institute of Business Forecasting’s Best Practices Conference in San Francisco, April 28-30, drew a large and
The Spring 2010 issue of Foresight is now available. Here is Editor Len Tashman’s preview: What’s the connection between hindsight and foresight? That is the question Paul Goodwin asks in his Hot New Research column leading off this issue. The problem is that hindsight bias – the tendency to believe
I’m going to put “An Operational Definition of ‘Demand’ – Part 3” on hold for a moment, to announce a new favorite article on forecasting, “Living in a world of low levels of predictability,” by Spyros Makridakis and Nassim Taleb (International Journal of Forecasting 25 (2009) 840-844. IJF is a
Last week I was a guest of Gaurav Verma on the SAS Applying Business Analytics Web Series, and presented “What Management Must Know About Forecasting.” One of the most important things you can bring to management’s attention is the benefit of making your demand forecastable. In forecasting we tend to
The SAS internal discussion boards are always full of fascinating topics, some of which are even decipherable to a non-Ph.D. in statistics like me. A recent topic involved how to calculate the benefits of good forecasting software, and my colleague Robin Way offered an interesting perspective that he allowed me
Here is the first of what I hope to be many guest postings from my colleagues here at SAS. Today Snurre Jensen, Business Advisor from SAS Denmark, writes about his recent encounter with a blog about dealing with demand changes in SAP APO. From Snurre: In my ongoing quest for
Members of the media attending SAS Global Forum met a panel of SAS customers from diverse backgrounds but with a unified message: In uncertain economic times, deploying the power of advanced analytics becomes a necessity rather than a luxury. Panelists included: Aaron Cano, Vice President of Customer Knowledge, 1-800-FLOWERS.com Stephan
