The Business Forecasting Deal
Exposing bad practices and offering practical solutions in business forecasting![Congratulations to Rick Wicklin for 10 Years of The Do Loop SAS Logo](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2020/09/SAS-Logo.png)
Congratulations to Rick Wicklin for 10 Years of The Do Loop Rick Wicklin, author of The Do Loop I want to take a moment to congratulate my colleague Rick Wicklin on the 10th Anniversary of his blog, The Do Loop. Rick is Distinguished Researcher in Computational Statistics at SAS, and our
![Excerpts from Present Sense by Steve Morlidge (Part 3 of 3)](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2020/08/Present-Sense-227x300-1.jpg)
Excerpt from Steve Morlidge's new book Present Sense (Matador, 2019). Part 3: Not Storytellers But Reporters This is not the place to explore the role and ethics of performance reporting in detail, but I think there are at least four key duties. The duty of clarity Performance reports should be
![Excerpts from Present Sense by Steve Morlidge (Part 2 of 3)](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2020/08/Present-Sense-227x300-1.jpg)
Excerpt adapted from Steve Morlidge's new book Present Sense (Matador, 2019). Part 2: Not Storytellers But Reporters News and Evidence If we ever doubted the importance of having a capability to assimilate mountains of detail, synthesize it and present it in an accessible and balanced way, the storm around the
![Excerpts from Present Sense by Steve Morlidge (Part 1 of 3)](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2020/08/Present-Sense-227x300-1.jpg)
It's no secret that The BFD is a huge fan of Steve Morlidge. Morlidge has contributed work of fundamental importance to our understanding of the practice of business forecasting. His studies of forecast quality exposed the abysmal nature of the practice, including the startling statistic that perhaps 30-50% of real-life
![Announcing: SAS/IIF Research Grants IIF logo](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2012/10/IIF-Logo-150.jpg)
The International Institute of Forecasters and SAS® announce two $10,000 grants to support research on forecasting. Per the announcement: Forecasting research has seen major changes in the theoretical ideas underpinning forecasting effectiveness over the last 30 years. However, there has been less impact on forecasting practice. We aim to put this right.
![The Forecaster as The Confidence Man (Part 2) Mount Rushmore](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2020/08/Mount-Rushmore-640x427-640x336.jpg)
As we saw in the last installment, The Confidence Man works by making every assertion -- no matter how ridiculous, heinous, or false -- with extreme confidence. By following this practice, with never a waver or inkling of self-doubt, roughly 40% of people will follow along in adoration. If you