![The Forecaster as The Confidence Man clock](https://blogs.sas.com/content/forecasting/files/2020/07/Clock-200x189.jpg)
Everyone is familiar with The Confidence Man. This person can spout any sort of nonsense and easily demonstrable lies, and yet 40% of the people still believe him. The Confidence Man exposes a curious characteristic about human behavior: If you make your assertions with extreme confidence, no matter how obviously