Preview of Foresight (Summer 2020)


Foresight CoverFollowing is editor-in-chief Len Tashman's preview of the Summer 2020 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

Preview of Foresight (Summer 2020)

The Summer 2020 issue of Foresight—number 58 in this, our fifteenth anniversary year—addresses fundamental issues related to

(a) the criteria for choosing among forecasting methods,
(b) the presentation of metrics measuring forecast accuracy,
(c) the practical relevance of forecasting competitions,

and, through several articles,

(d) the potential for improved technology, especially through AI, to reduce errors in decision making by augmenting and automating decision processes.

On these issues, we welcome the perspectives of several new Foresight authors:

Shari De Baets of Ghent University, who reviews Hannah Fry’s new book Hello World: Being Human in the Age of the Machine.

Yue Li, Diane Berry, and Jason Lee of Bain and Company, who set out practical criteria for choosing among statistical, machine-learning, and judgmental approaches to forecasting.

Casper Bojer and Jens Peder Meldgaard of Aalberg University, who evaluate key findings from recent forecasting competitions as a foretaste of the M5.

Michael Tremblay, health-services research fellow at the University of Kent, who envisions a promising role for “intelligent machines” in reducing forecasting errors in diagnostic medicine.

Agneta Ramosaj and Marino Widmer of the University of Fribourg, who show how stagger charts can be used to display forecasts and changes in forecast accuracy over time.

We have, as well, returning author Niels van Hove, who lays out a foundation of forecasting/planning horizons and how each can benefit from advances in technology.

Both annual conferences of the International Institute of Forecasters are now online only. The 40th International Symposium on Forecasting—originally to be held in Rio in early July—will be broadcast October 26-28 from wherever we are to wherever you are. See our announcement on the inside front cover of this issue and view the program at—where, as an IIF member, you can register for free.

The 2020 Foresight Practitioner Conference, originally to be hosted in Chapel Hill in November, will be beamed to you through the day on Wednesday, December 2. The conference speakers will lay the groundwork for creating a strategic integrated business planning and forecasting process. More details are found in the announcement on the inside back cover and at Registration is also free to IIF members and at the membership cost of $125 for not-yet-members.


About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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