Oil, options and inflation: Looking for a silver lining

Year-end outlooks from most analysts project the low-price environment in the oil market will continue for most of next year, but some pundits emphasize that the market has bottomed out and suggest recovery, though gradual, may be seen if increasing demand outpaces supply growth and sops up some of the […]

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Learning from theSkimm to simplify bank stress testing

I have a short attention span. So, imagine my delight when a colleague of mine introduced me to theSkimm. If you are not familiar, theSkimm takes the top news stories of the day and summarizes them quickly, in ways that are easy to understand – and often linked to pop […]

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From boom to bust: Searching for sustainability in the new oil climate

Times have changed. As the oil industry shutters and sheds investments that made sense during the two-year period in which oil rode comfortably above $90, the market is establishing a new equilibrium at $40/barrel. This despite the fact that the Baker Hughes domestic rig count is down 64 percent. It’s […]

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Oil portfolio restructured and back in the money

Though crude oil prices edged up last week, the market remains well below VirtualOil’s original $50 strike price, meaning the hypothetical portfolio’s production is shut in in the spot market again. Oversupply continues while China GDP forecasted growth is slowing. Given the market outlook, the VirtualOil board has decided to […]

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Value from Business-Driven Stress Testing

Going Beyond Regulatory-Mandated Tests to Achieve True Risk Management I regularly hear banking customers talk about ‘sweating their assets’ - leveraging their substantial investments in expanded teams of risk analysts, re-engineered processes and new risk systems for Basel II and III compliance – to gain better insights into their business. […]

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Five Keys to Successful Stress Testing

Stress testing is not new to the risk world but has been a major focus since the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). For a number of years now, stress testing has helped analytical specialists quantify various aspects of potential loss. What is new is the introduction of regulatory stress tests which […]

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Agile risk management – What might that look like?

I had the opportunity to moderate a roundtable discussion on risk management at the International Institute for Analytics’ (IIA) winter symposium in Orlando earlier this month.  I set the stage for the session with a brief overview of my favorite risk approach, “Competing on Value”, by Mack Hannan and Peter […]

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Innovating for the Numerator

The National Academy of Engineering identified fourteen "Grand Challenges for Engineering" that must be addressed in order to achieve a sustainable, economically robust, and politically stable future. (see the full list here) The challenges are a call-to-action for solutions to some of the most pressing issues in the 21st century: […]

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Twenty-four extra-large bunny suits

I worked at the General Dynamics (now Lockheed-Martin) F-16 jet fighter plant in Fort Worth, Texas, during the mid-1980’s, where they subsequently manufactured the F-22 and now the F-35. My tenure there spanned the era of the $400 hammer and $700 toilet seat scandals in the military procurement world. While […]

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Corporate culture: Your organization’s response to stress

“Culture eats strategy for breakfast”.  If we’ve heard it once we’ve heard it a thousand times.  I even wrote one of my early posts on this topic (“When metrics collide”).  Consultants, analysts, academics and other thought leaders have examined and questioned its veracity, but still the consensus seems to be that […]

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