Tag: SAS Forecast Server

Mike Gilliland 0
Can you identify a trend?

So you think you are smarter than the average forecaster, and can identify a trend in time series data? You now have a chance to put your trend detection skills (aka trendar) to the test, and help the cause of forecasting research in the process. Nikos Kourentzes, Associate Professor at

Advanced Analytics | Analytics
Mike Gilliland 0
Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 11 of 12)

Aphorism 3: Organizational Policies and Politics Can Have a Significant Impact on Forecasting Effectiveness We just saw how demand volatility reduces forecastability. Yet our sales, marketing, and financial incentives are usually designed to add volatility. We reward sales spikes and record weeks, rather than smooth, stable, predictable growth. The forecast

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecast Value Added Q&A (Part 3)

With this Q&A Part 3, we are about halfway through the questions submitted during the FVA webinar. We did over 15 minutes of live Q&A at the end of the webinar, and covered many of the submitted questions at that time, however I always prefer to issue complete written responses to

Mike Gilliland 0
Lessons from forecasting the stock market

There is a well recognized phenomenon that combining forecasts, derived from different methods using different sources of information, can improve forecast accuracy. This approach, sometimes called "ensemble forecasting," is available in SAS Forecast Server. Per Scott Armstrong's review of 57 studies on combining forecasts, "the combined forecast can be better

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecasting fashion apparel (Part 3)

Some ideas sound great (combining chocolate with peanut butter) and turn out great (Reese's Peanut Butter Cup).  Some ideas sound great (getting a face lift) but turn out bad (Kenny Rogers, Greta Van Susteren). Some ideas sound bad (a Run-DMC / Aerosmith duet) but turn out great ("Walk This Way").   Some ideas sound bad (letting

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecasting fashion apparel (Part 2)

Have you noticed the annoying stock art they put on The BFD blog header? All I can think of is "If those idiots only used SAS Forecast Server, they wouldn't have to draw graphs all over their window panes just to do forecasting." It must really p.o. the housekeeping staff at that