During a recent presentation on performance management I had an audience member ask me if perhaps I had minored in cynicism along with my degree in finance. I replied that, with the science, psychology and philosophy I’d taken, I probably had minored in skepticism, but that the cynicism came later,
Wouldn’t it be great if we could predict the future? As a kid, I liked to write sci-fi stories. I wrote stories about what the year 2000 would be like: flying cars, robots, and talking dogs. OK, I won’t admit what year I was actually writing these stories, but back
Leaving Las Vegas Prince Harry, who recently gambled away a handful of the royal family jewels during a high-stakes billiards game, doesn't have to be the only person to leave Las Vegas with some important lessons learned. You can, too, by attending the Analytics2012 conference at Caesar's Palace, October 8-9. Learnings
As leaders and managers of human beings with million year-old brain structures, as part of our managerial toolkit we need to keep ourselves knowledgeable about psychology and the cognitive science of how people make decisions. You have undoubtedly read about how innately bad we are at making certain types of
SAS Dress Code In addition to providing great software for forecasting (and business analytics in general), SAS is also renowned as a great place to work. (See #1, #1, and #3 rankings the past three years in the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For.) Part of this greatness is due
The April 2012 issue of ORMS Today contains a piece on "How analytics enhance the guest experience at Walt Disney World," by Pete Buczkowski and Hai Chu. While many of us are used to forecasting just one or two things (such as unit sales or revenue), Pete and Hai illustrate
When you begin your career your most important skills are your hard, technical skills; the finance and accounting, the statistics and economics, the physics and chemistry, the engineering and calculus. But as I tell my business school mentees, as your career progresses, the emphasis changes such that much sooner than
At Predictive Analytics World San Francisco this week I attended back to back sessions on econometrics, a word that doesn’t surface as often as I think it should. Bestselling books like Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything or Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our
I love dogs. Not to the extent that Rick Santorum has to be concerned. And not to the extent of actually having a dog as a pet. But man-dog love has become an issue in the 2012 US presidential campaign, and I thought The BFD readers should know my stance
History is easy to explain. We can always come up with some story for why this or that occurred. And, if the story sounds plausible enough, the explanation will be accepted as true. But can we ever know that the explanation is correct? How would we ever test it? If we
Happy New Year! Wishing everyone a prosperous and joyful 2012! The joyful festive atmosphere continues to pervade most Chinese families in Asia in the coming week, as we will be celebrating Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) on Jan 23rd . This date is determined by the lunisolar Chinese calendar. Alongside
Hear directly from an organization that is firing on all cylinders with analytics and achieving true data-driven insight in all its business areas. On Dec. 14, SAS customer Kelley Blue Book (KBB) and SAS Alliance partner Modern Analytics will share firsthand learnings during a live webinar, "Analytics – An Inside Perspective,”
When viewing time series data, often we only want to see the trend in the data over time and we are not so concerned about the actual data values. With multiple time series plots, forecasting software can find clusters to help us view series with similar trends. Recently I saw a graph showing the trend of unemployment
I have previously dealt independently with issues of forecasting, planning, and budgeting in separate posts, and the time has now come to pull them all together in one place and just come out and say what I really mean. This integrative post was prompted by a recent invitation I received
If you are feeling out of sorts, a bit down and out, and want to take it all the way to full-blown depression, have I got a book recommendation for you: “Normal Accidents”, by Charles Perrow (1984). Perrow’s premise is that we have designed certain systems, nuclear reactors being his primary
Here is a four-stage approach to financial forecasting. I urge you to seriously consider adopting at least level 1, then next look at how layering on the other stages might transform your approach to business planning. The four stages are: (1) Multiple Forecast Inputs, (2) Marco Polo, (3) Driver-based forecasting,
The downturn in the economy beginning in 2008 and continuing even to now has put tremendous pressure on local governments to do “less with less”. In the past when economic downturns caused service level cut backs the cry was to do “more with less”. The idea was to identify ways
How do you know when you’ve given a great presentation? When someone remembers it a year later and writes a blog post about it. That great presentation in this case was given by Erik DaRosa, Director of Global FP&A for Avon, who spoke at the IE Group’s Financial Forecasting Conference this time last year
I was under the impression that Black Swans were supposed to be rare. Rare enough to be effectively non-computable by standard methods. Nassim Taleb’s formulation of the Black Swan Theory is comprised of the three traits of: outlier (rarity), extreme impact, and retrospective predictability (i.e. 20/20 hindsight). I write this
How important is accurate telecom forecasting? Sitting through another presentation this week on the explosive growth of mobile data, and the eye-popping statistics about how many Facebook and Twitter users there are, I can’t help but be excited by the possibilities. But I also have this feeling of déjà vu
Happy New Year!! This is a good time to think about what was going on here in SAS Education one year ago, and to introduce you to a big project that I'm really excited to "take public." In January 2010 (as well as throughout 2009), we kept getting cries for
With the exception of the occasional James Bond movie that proves the rule, we don’t as a matter of course combine our modes of transportation into one all-purpose vehicle, and we even tend to park our cars, boats and planes in separate facilities. But when it comes to financial management,
Next up in the SAS Applying Business Analytics Webinar Series is Forecasting 101! This Webinar is appropriate for anyone involved in the creation, review or utilization of forecasts: demand planners and forecast analysts who generate forecasts; managers in sales, marketing, finance and operations; and executives who oversee the forecasting and
Over 80 banks in America have been closed down this year and others have announced higher trading losses amidst increased regulatory scrutiny. Finland was the first country to announce a double dip recession. Northern Rock cut 650 jobs as part of their restructuring efforts. We’re obviously not out of the
Wow, what a couple of days!! I was involved with the SAS Business Forecasting Conference the last two days and I am impressed with all that I saw and learned! F2010 brought 238 people together from 16 countries to share best practices around business forecasting. You have to take a
As more organizations are realizing greater value tapping into their time series data in new and innovative ways, we are often asked about books we would recommend on time series analysis. I have consulted with some internal experts and wanted to post this list of recommended books on the topic since
Welcome to SAS Training Post, the official blog of SAS Training & Certification! My name is Michele Reister and I am the social media manager for SAS Education. This blog will be a channel to provide you with value-add educational content to help you be a better SAS user. You’ll
