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Mike GillilandOctober 19, 2016 0

Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 6 of 12)

Why the Attraction for the Offensive Paradigm? In addition to the reasons provided by Green and Armstrong, I'd like to add one more reason for the lure of complexity: You can always add complexity to a model to better fit the history. In fact, you can always create a model

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Mike GillilandOctober 19, 2016 0

Guest blogger Len Tashman previews Fall 2016 issue of Foresight

Fresh from chairing the Foresight Practitioner Conference on “Worst Practices in Business Forecasting,” hosted two weeks ago at the Institute for Advanced Analytics at North Carolina State University, Foresight editor-in-chief Len Tashman previews the Fall 2016 issue. Preview of the Fall 2016 issue of Foresight In the provocative article, “The

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Mike GillilandOctober 18, 2016 0

Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 5 of 12)

Implications for the Offensive Paradigm The worldview promulgated by the Offensive paradigm is that if we only had MORE – more data, more computational power, more complex models, more elaborate processes – we could eventually solve the business forecasting problem. But this just doesn’t seem to be the case. Operating

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Mike GillilandOctober 17, 2016 0

Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 4 of 12)

Is Complexity Bad? It’s necessary to point out that Goodwin’s article is not arguing against complexity per se, and I’m not either. When you have a high value forecast, where it is critical to be as accurate as possible, of course you are going to want to try every technique

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Mike GillilandOctober 14, 2016 0

Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 3 of 12)

Anomalies: The Beginning of a Crisis While even trained scientists can fail to see things that fall outside what they are looking for, anomalies eventually start to get noticed. But still, for a long time, anomalies within an existing paradigm are seen as mere “violations of expectation.” The response within

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Mike GillilandOctober 13, 2016 0

Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 2 of 12)

The Current Paradigm for Business Forecasting So what is the current paradigm that we, the community of business forecasting practitioners and researchers, are operating under? I’d argue that for at least the last 60 years, since 1956 when Robert G. Brown published his short monograph Exponential Smoothing for Predicting Demand,

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Mike GillilandOctober 13, 2016 0

Changing the paradigm for business forecasting (Part 1 of 12)

In a February 2015 post Offensive vs. Defensive Forecasting, I sought to distinguish two very different approaches to the business forecasting problem: Offensive: The "offensive" forecaster is focused on forecast accuracy -- on extracting every last fraction of a percent of accuracy we can hope to achieve. The approach is

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Mike GillilandSeptember 27, 2016 0

NIJ crime forecasting challenge

NIJ's Real-Time Forecasting Challenge If you want to show off your forecasting chops, and maybe even make a little money, the National Institute of Justice has just the challenge for you. The NIJ's Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge: ...seeks to harness the advances in data science to address the challenges of

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Mike GillilandSeptember 8, 2016 0

New course on Next Generation Demand Management

My friend and colleague Charlie Chase, author of the new book Next Generation Demand Management, has developed a 2-day course to go along with the book. The course is part of the SAS Business Knowledge Series, and is being offered in Chicago, October 19-20. Here are the details: Next Generation

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Mike GillilandAugust 19, 2016 0

Business Forecasting book review in JBF

Book Review in Journal of Business Forecasting The Summer 2016 issue of Journal of Business Forecasting includes a book review of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions. The review is by Simon Clarke, Group Director of Forecasting at The Coca-Cola Company. You may be familiar with Clarke's many previous contributions

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