Life Lesson from a Black Eye I'm fond of arguing that Plato is the father of philosophy.  Apparently that is the wrong argument to make, in a bar, with a stranger,  when said stranger takes the opposing view.  (And I thought politics, religion, and his mother were the only things never

Among the suitable-for-blog-publication-without-risking-my-job definitions of masochism is this: A willingness or tendency to subject oneself to unpleasant or trying experiences So to be a forecaster, must you also be a masochist? Few people enjoy the difficulties and degradation that go with being a forecaster, so few are willing to do it

A common mistake in bad or misused software is choosing a forecasting model based solely on the model’s “fit to history” (often referred to as “best fit” or “pick best” functionality). The software provides (or the forecaster builds) several competing models which are then evaluated against recent history. The model

Of course, forecasting the stock market is not perfectly analogous to forecasting demand for a product.  The asking price for a stock is largely "anchored" by the price of its most recent trades.  While market values may appear to randomly drift up and down, or in a general direction, we generally

In this second of three flash reports from last week's Analytics2011 conference, we hear about a favorite topic of mine -- the relationship between demand volatility and forecastability. Rob Miller of Avantor Performance Materials, on Forecastability and Demand Volatility The "comet chart," illustrating the relationship between demand volatility and forecast