Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
It has been my great pleasure writing this blog for the past 12 years, with over 370 posts. In doing so, I have enjoyed the support of my exceptional SAS managers over this time: From Anne Milley and Renee Nocker way back when it started, to Susan Kahler and David
I've never been much of a fan of forecasting approaches to intermittent demand. In situations like intermittent demand (or other areas where we have little hope of reasonably accurate forecasts), my thinking is "why bother?" If we can't expect to solve the problem with forecasting, we need a different approach.
Following is editor Len Tashman's preview of the 2021-Q4 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight #63 (2021-Q4) FORESIGHT HALL OF FAME Adopting the idea from other journals that recognize outstanding contributions to the field through best paper awards, we are pleased to announce that
M6 Financial Forecasting Competition The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center has announced the M6 Financial Forecasting Competition, to begin in February 2022. This will be a "live" competition running through February 2023, with a focus on forecasts of stock price (returns) and risk, and on investment decisions based on the forecasts.
The International Institute of Forecasters and SAS® are funding two $10,000 grants to support research on forecasting. Per the announcement: For the eighteenth year, the IIF, in collaboration with SAS®, is proud to announce financial support for research on improving forecasting methods and business forecasting practice. The award for this year will be
On September 2 (3pm UTC / 11am EDT), I'll be joining Jonathon Karelse, CEO of NorthFind Management, for an interactive "fireside chat" on the application of Behavioral Economics in demand planning. This is part of the Foresight Webinar Series, and registration is free. Since we first met at an Institute
What makes something easy (or difficult) to forecast? This question was answered by Prof. Rob Hyndman on the Forecasting Impact podcast (February 6, 2021), and it's worth a look at his response. Rob was recently named a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is someone who is known
Following is Editor Len Tashman's preview of the new issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight #62 (2021:Q3) This 62nd issue of Foresight has been heavily “infected” by the COVID pandemic. Stephan Kolassa’s book review of Resurrecting Retail by Doug Stephens raises the question of whether the
International Symposium on Forecasting (virtual, June 27 - July 2) The 41st International Symposium on Forecasting will be virtual again this year, and begins Sunday June 27. SAS will have a huge presence -- as event sponsor, sponsor of the IIF/SAS Research Grants, and with 19 individual presentations. ISF registration
I am gratified to see the continuing adoption of Forecast Value Added by organizations worldwide. FVA is an easy to understand and easy to apply approach for identifying bad practices in your forecasting process. And I'm particularly gratified to see coverage of FVA in two new books, which the authors
