M6 Financial Forecasting Competition announced


M6 Financial Forecasting Competition

MOFC LogoThe Makridakis Open Forecasting Center has announced the M6 Financial Forecasting Competition, to begin in February 2022. This will be a "live" competition running through February 2023, with a focus on forecasts of stock price (returns) and risk, and on investment decisions based on the forecasts. This forecasting and investing "duathlon" will draw substantial coverage from the forecasting community and from the public and mass media, with a prize pool targeted at $300,000.

As in all M competitions, the M6 is designed as a research endeavor. Its purpose is to empirically investigate an apparent paradox: The efficient market hypothesis posits that share prices reflect all relevant information, so consistently outperforming the market is not feasible. The EMH is supported by considerable evidence that active investment managers do not beat, on average, random stock selections. However, certain investors such as Warren Buffet have achieved long-term market beating returns impossible to justify by mere chance. The M6 is expected to shed new light on the EMH.

Find details on entering the competition and M6 guidelines on the competition website.

M5 Conference (December 6-7)

The M6 follows 2020's M5 and 2018's M4, which showed an increasingly valuable role of machine learning methods to augment and improve upon traditional time series methods. The M5 Conference, currently scheduled for December 6-7 in New York City, will provide a stellar lineup of speakers to review, analyze, and discuss the results and implications of the M5 competition. This includes remarks by M-competition founder Spyros Makridakis, and keynotes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb of NYU and Chris Fry of Google.




About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and currently Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike receive the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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