Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
Welcome to the first of a 3-part series by guest bloggers Jessica Curtis and Andrea Moore: FORECASTING IS UBIQUITOUS Forecasting is core to many different business decisions across virtually every industry. Whether you’re a retailer planning a compelling assortment of SKUs or improving labor planning for distribution centers and stores, or a consumer product goods
Tomorrow we begin a three-part series on how to accelerate open source forecasting with SAS, by guest bloggers (and my colleagues) Jessica Curtis and Andrea Moore. As the popularity of open source forecasting has expanded, so has the ability of SAS to take advantage of open source capabilities. Over the
The practice of business forecasting falls well short of the potential exhibited in academic research and forecasting competitions. Chris Chatfield* noted this in a 1986 editorial in the International Journal of Forecasting, where he called on statisticians to find a better way of communicating the better use of existing methods
After a day out shoveling snow from a freak early September storm, here is editor-in-chief Len Tashman's preview of the Fall 2020 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Preview of Foresight (Fall 2020) The Fall 2020 issue of Foresight—number 59 since inception in 2005—features the final installment of
Congratulations to Rick Wicklin for 10 Years of The Do Loop Rick Wicklin, author of The Do Loop I want to take a moment to congratulate my colleague Rick Wicklin on the 10th Anniversary of his blog, The Do Loop. Rick is Distinguished Researcher in Computational Statistics at SAS, and our
Excerpt from Steve Morlidge's new book Present Sense (Matador, 2019). Part 3: Not Storytellers But Reporters This is not the place to explore the role and ethics of performance reporting in detail, but I think there are at least four key duties. The duty of clarity Performance reports should be
Excerpt adapted from Steve Morlidge's new book Present Sense (Matador, 2019). Part 2: Not Storytellers But Reporters News and Evidence If we ever doubted the importance of having a capability to assimilate mountains of detail, synthesize it and present it in an accessible and balanced way, the storm around the
It's no secret that The BFD is a huge fan of Steve Morlidge. Morlidge has contributed work of fundamental importance to our understanding of the practice of business forecasting. His studies of forecast quality exposed the abysmal nature of the practice, including the startling statistic that perhaps 30-50% of real-life
The International Institute of Forecasters and SAS® announce two $10,000 grants to support research on forecasting. Per the announcement: Forecasting research has seen major changes in the theoretical ideas underpinning forecasting effectiveness over the last 30 years. However, there has been less impact on forecasting practice. We aim to put this right.
As we saw in the last installment, The Confidence Man works by making every assertion -- no matter how ridiculous, heinous, or false -- with extreme confidence. By following this practice, with never a waver or inkling of self-doubt, roughly 40% of people will follow along in adoration. If you
