As we saw in the last installment, The Confidence Man works by making every assertion -- no matter how ridiculous, heinous, or false -- with extreme confidence. By following this practice, with never a waver or inkling of self-doubt, roughly 40% of people will follow along in adoration. If you
Tag: uncertainty
The Forecaster as The Confidence Man (Part 2)
How Bayesian analysis might help find the missing Malaysian airplane
At the time this blog entry was written, there still appears to be little to no signs of locating the missing Malaysian flight MH370. The area of search, although already narrowed down from the size of the United States at one point to the size of Poland, is still vast
Hungry dogs and decision-making under uncertainty
My wife rescued a dog a couple of years ago from a rural North Carolina rest stop . We named her "DOTi" in honor of the Department of Transportation. It took a while for us to get into the swing of being responsible owners; sometimes the first to leave for