The Spring 2014 issue of Foresight includes Steve Morlidge's latest article on the topic of forecastability and forecasting performance. He reports on sample data obtained from eight business operating in consumer (B2C) and industrial (B2B) markets. Before we look at these new results, let's review his previous arguments: 1. All
Q: Is the MAPE of the naive forecast the basis for understanding the forecastability of the behavior? Or are there other more in depth ways to measure the forecastability of a behavior? MAPE of the naive forecast indicates the worst you should be able to forecast the behavior. You can
Q: Company always try to forecast 12 or 24m ahead. Whether we should track accuracy of 1m/3m/ 6m or x month forecast, does that depend on lead time? How to determine out of these 12/24 months, which month should we track accuracy? Correct, forecast performance is usually evaluated against the
