Tag: naive forecast

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecast Value Added Q&A (Part 6)

Q: ­Is the MAPE of the naive forecast the basis for understanding the forecastability of the behavior?  Or are there other more in depth ways to measure the forecastability of a behavior? MAPE of the naive forecast indicates the worst you should be able to forecast the behavior. You can

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecast Value Added Q&A (Part 5)

Q: ­Company always try to forecast 12 or 24m ahead. Whether we should track accuracy of 1m/3m/ 6m or x month forecast, does that depend on lead time?  How to determine out of these 12/24 months, which month should we track accuracy? Correct, forecast performance is usually evaluated against the

Mike Gilliland 0
Forecast Value Added Q&A (Part 4)

Q: ­What is a legitimate goal to expect from your FVA...5%, 10%? Q: ­How do we set Target FVA which Forecasters can drive towards?­ The appropriate goal is to do no worse than a naive model, that is FVA ≥ 0. Sometimes, especially over short periods of time, you may