Charles Chase is the executive industry consultant and trusted advisor for the SAS Retail/CPG global practice. He is the author of Next Generation Demand Management: People, Process, Analytics and Technology, author of Demand-Driven Forecasting: A Structured Approach to Forecasting, and co-author of Bricks Matter: The Role of Supply Chains in Building Market-Driven Differentiation, as well as over 50 articles in several business journals on demand forecasting and planning, supply chain management, and market response modeling. His latest book is Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning: Predicting Changing Demand Patterns in the New Digital Economy. To learn more, please see his Author page.
There's been a lot of hype regarding using machine learning (ML) for demand forecasting, and rightfully so, given the advancements in data collection, storage, and processing along with improvements in technology. There's no reason why machine learning can't be utilized as another forecasting method among the collection of forecasting methods
When it comes to forecasting new product launches, executives say that it's a frustrating, almost futile, effort. The reason? Minimal data, limited analytic capabilities and a general uncertainty surrounding a new product launch. Not to mention the ever-changing marketplace. Nevertheless, companies cannot disregard the need for a new product forecast
We have entered the “second machine age.” The first machine age began with the industrial revolution, which was driven primarily by technology innovation. The ability to generate massive amounts of mechanical power made humans more productive. Where the steam engine started the industrial revolution, the second machine age has taken
If you think machine learning will replace demand planners, then don’t read this post. If you think machine learning will automate and unleash the power of insights allowing demand planners to drive more value and growth, then this article is a must read.
“Quick response forecasting (QRF) techniques are forecasting processes that can incorporate information quickly enough to act upon by agile supply chains” explained Dr. Larry Lapide, in a recent Journal of Business Forecasting column. The concept of QRF is based on updating demand forecasts to reflect real and rapid changes in demand, both
Wherever there is uncertainty there has got to be judgment, and wherever there is judgment there is an opportunity for human fallibility. Donald Redelmeirer, physician-researcher Recently, I read a fascinating book titled The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Mind by Michael Lewis (W.W. Norton & Company, 2017). Lewis
Depending on who you speak with you will get varying definitions and opinions regarding demand sensing and shaping from sensing short-range replenishment based on sales orders to manual blending of point-of-sales (POS) data and shipments. Most companies think that they are sensing demand when in fact they are
Analytics-driven forecasting means more than measuring trend and seasonality. It includes all categories of methods (e.g. exponential smoothing, dynamic regression, ARIMA, ARIMA(X), unobserved component models, and more), including artificial intelligence, but not necessarily deep learning algorithms. That said, deep learning algorithms like neural networks can also be used for demand forecasting,
Let me start by posing a question: "Are you forecasting at the edge to anticipate what consumers want or need before they know it?" Not just forecasting based on past demand behavior, but using real-time information as it is streaming in from connected devices on the Internet of Things (IoT).
Are you caught up in the machine learning forecasting frenzy? Is it reality or more hype? There's been a lot of hype about using machine learning for forecasting. And rightfully so, given the advancements in data collection, storage, and processing along with technology improvements, such as super computers and more powerful
