The Premier Business Leadership Series in Belgium offered an amazing opening sequence this morning, with a full wall of video addressing the issue of finding answers from "big data" and a light show featuring the spectacular crystal chandelier in the Belle Epoque ballroom.
First up on the agenda this morning was a panel discussion about "The Global Economic Outlook: Living in Interesting Times."
This year live voting has been introduced to PBLS – giving delegates an opportunity to directly interact with the presenters. In answer to the first question put to us, a majority 61 percent either agreed or strongly agreed that ‘The global economic conditions provided an environment within which businesses could grow,” but 29 percent disagreed or strongly disagreed with this sentiment.
After opening the conference with compelling stories about the pace of change globally, Mark Jeffries introduced each of the economists who in turn gave a short presentation of some of the things they are thinking about:
Linda Yueh, PhD, Economist and Economics Correspondent for Bloomberg Television spent a few minutes talking about her worries that we may still be in danger of a double-dip recession; global indicators are weak with a lot of reliance on growing economies to fuel the rest of the world's economies. Linda is convinced that cycles of growth and recession will be feature of economics for many years yet.
Gerard Lyons, PhD, Chief Economist and Group Head of Global Research, Standard Chartered updated the audience on his thinking since his last appearance at PBLS last year in Berlin; on his mind at the moment is how businesses need to manage the near-term uncertainty and prepare for a more optimistic long-term view. He is excited and positive about the future for the global economy with 4.8 billion in the middle class.
Karel Lannoo, Chief Executive Officer, Centre for European Policy Studies, shared with us his comparison between Belgium in the 90's and Greece today, Spain vs. the UK, and Eurozone vs. the United States. He believes that commentators are being too negative and that all the countries have the capacity to manage their debt. He was very bullish about the future of the Eurozone and the future of the Euro.
Gerard thinks the core of Europe is much healthier than the periphery and there must be more economic cooperation (and support). The benefits of cooperation for the whole of the Eurozone has not yet been explained to the citizenry and the need for closer fiscal union.
After their individual presentations, the panel (led by Mark) tried to help the audience make sense of the post-global financial crisis era, and the series of economic shocks in 2010/2011.
Discussing the “Arab spring” in the Middle East, Linda thinks it is obviously going to cause price volatility in oil markets, but she is also looking at the potential for the Middle East exporting some of its political dynamism to emerging countries (if only in part) and foster more sharply defined economic cycles.
Gerard is forecasting higher global food prices globally as demand increases, with more speculator activity than, say, in the oil markets. Gerard also addressed China the, “elephant in the room,” which has enormous potential in its economic power although still needs to restructure some aspects of its economy (such as housing / property) and a re-skilling of its populace.
After the panel debate, the audience members were then asked to give their opinion as to “Which industry would contribute most to the global economy in 2012.” Most (41 percent) said energy, followed by telco (22 percent), retail (18 percent), other sectors (11 percent) and only 8 percent thought it would be Financial Services.
