The Business Forecasting Deal

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Mike GillilandNovember 24, 2014 0

Can you spare a few minutes to assist researchers at the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting? We have been commissioned by the European Journal of Operational Research to write a review article on Supply Chain Forecasting. In undertaking this task, we would like to ensure that the topics covered reflect the priorities

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Mike GillilandNovember 14, 2014 0

Gaming the forecast

Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most -- human adjustments to the forecast fail to make it better. And this is why relative metrics, such as FVA, are so helpful in

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Mike GillilandNovember 11, 2014 5

Getting real about uncertainty

In his Spring 2014 article in Foresight, Paul Goodwin addressed the important issue of point vs. probabilistic forecasts. A point forecast is a single number (e.g., the forecast for item XYZ in December is 635 units). We are all familiar with point forecasts, as these are what's commonly produced (either

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Mike GillilandNovember 11, 2014 0

SAS Summer Fellowships in Forecasting and Econometrics

The Advanced Analytics division of SAS Research & Development has announced three Summer Fellowships in the areas of Forecasting and Econometrics. The SAS forecasting fellowships are open to doctoral candidates in mathematics, statistics, computer science, and related graduate departments in the United States. They offer the opportunity to work closely

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Mike GillilandOctober 22, 2014 0

Guest blogger: Len Tashman previews Fall 2014 issue of Foresight

In 2015 Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting will celebrate 10 years of publication. From high in his aerie in the Colorado Rockies, here is Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's preview of the current issue: In this 35th issue of Foresight, we revisit a topic that always generates lively and entertaining

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Mike GillilandOctober 9, 2014 0

Foresight/SAS webinar October 30 on temporal aggregation

On Thursday, October 30, 11 am ET, Aris Syntetos delivers the next installment of the Foresight/SAS Webinar Series, "Forecasting by Temporal Aggregation." Based on his article in the Summer 2014 issue of Foresight, Aris provided this preview: When we attempt to improve forecast performance we usually consider new or alternative forecasting

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Mike GillilandOctober 8, 2014 0

Significant Digits in Business Forecasting

My favorite dog trick is the group hug. This is achieved by taking a dog's bad habit (rising up on strangers who don't really want a 70# dog rising up on them), and "flipping it" into something cute and adorable. It's all a matter of controlling perception, and that is

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Mike GillilandSeptember 4, 2014 2

5 steps to setting forecasting performance objectives (Part 2)

And now for the five steps: 1. Ignore industry benchmarks, past performance, arbitrary objectives, and what management "needs" your accuracy to be. Published benchmarks of industry forecasting performance are not relevant. See this prior post The perils of forecasting benchmarks for explanation. Previous forecasting performance may be interesting to know, but

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Mike GillilandSeptember 4, 2014 1

5 steps to setting forecasting performance objectives (Part 1)

It is after Labor Day in the US, meaning we must no longer wear white shoes, skirts, jackets, or trousers. But even if you are now going sans-culotte, it is time to begin thinking about organizational performance objectives for 2015. Setting forecasting performance objectives is one way for management to shine...or

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Mike GillilandSeptember 4, 2014 0

Reminder: September 30 deadline for IIF/SAS Research Grants

I wanted to pass along this reminder from Pam Stroud at the International Institute of Forecasters: Grant to Promote Research on Forecasting For the twelfth year, the IIF, in collaboration with SAS®, is proud to announce financial support for research on how to improve forecasting methods and business forecasting practice.

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