Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. What IS a forecast? First of all, we need to be absolutely clear what a forecast is – and what it isn’t. A forecast is a best estimate of future
The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting Steve Morlidge's latest work, The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting, is a unique contribution to the field. It is a guide for short term operational forecasting, delivered in a pocket-sized format, through 79 brief (two page) illustrated lessons. As I stated in my
When you realize your organization has a forecasting problem, what do you do to solve it? In particular, if you realize you need new forecasting software, how do you begin to find it? All too often, the first step in a software selection process is the Request for Proposal (RFP)
In this guest blogger post, Chris Gray of Gray Research weighs in on the discussion of forecasting vs. budgeting. Chris Gray on Forecasting vs. Budgeting Generally I agree with Steve Morlidge’s points about the differences between forecasts (or sales plans) and budgets, and the fact that they are unlikely to
Chris Gray of Gray Research is a longtime contributor to the practice of Sales and Operations Planning. He is author of several books on S&OP, software selection, and other supply chain related areas, including Sales and Operations Planning Standard System (2007). In 2006 he co-authored Sales & Operations Planning –
Yesterday I recommended Steve Morlidge’s The Little Book of Beyond Budgeting, for helping to illuminate the troubling usage of business forecasts in the traditional management / budgeting process. Steve reached out to me overnight with some additional points that he shares in this guest blogger post. Steve Morlidge on Forecasts
Is There Something Beyond Budgeting? Forecasting is an integral part of the business planning and budgeting process. Presumably the forecast (which should be an "unbiased best guess" at what is really going to happen in the future) can provide a reasonable foundation upon which the annual budget and operating plans
The Means of the Defensive Paradigm The Defensive paradigm pursues its objective by identifying and eliminating forecasting process waste. (Waste is defined as efforts that are failing to make the forecast more accurate and less biased, or are even making the forecast worse.) In this context, it may seem ridiculous
"The Role of Model Interpretability in Data Science" is a recent post on Medium.com by Carl Anderson, Director of Data Science at the fashion eyeware company Warby Parker. Anderson argues that data scientists should be willing to make small sacrifices in model quality in order to deliver a model that
Editor Len Tashman's preview of the Winter 2016 issue of Foresight This 40th issue of Foresight begins with a review of the new book by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner with the enticing title Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Reviewer Steve Morlidge explains that …the “superforecasters” of the
