No matter how much we want it, and no matter how hard we try, we can’t always achieve the forecast accuracy desired. Forecasting Heads or Tails in the toss of a fair coin gives the perfect illustration (being right 50% of the time is all we can achieve over a

When Marilyn Manson sang of “The Beautiful People,” I think it was about how symmetry of facial features makes a person more visually attractive. At least that was the message I got out of the song. But unfortunately, even facial symmetry cannot compensate for an insufferable personality, as both Marilyn

Did the North Carolina Department of Motor Vehicles regain its sanity? Or was this just another tease? As you recall from last year, my application for “THE BFD” personalized license plate was accepted – then rejected – even though that extra $30 fee could have eased at least some of

Self-anointed as The Aristocrat of forecasting related blogs, The BFD takes its public service role seriously (or at least as seriously as anyone who self-anoints on a regular basis can be taken). Among the services The BFD provides, both publicly (on webcasts or speaking engagements) and privately (by phone, email,

This week I received an urgent text message from a good friend and former colleague in the consulting business: Mike, I am down 24 pages in your book and [besmirching my trousers]. Is there no hope for consultants like me? My response was to not let the book ruin a

An alarming percentage of major software implementations fail to be delivered on time, on budget, or even at all. Implementations of new forecasting software, or of new forecasting processes, are not immune from this legacy of failure. Why does this happen, and is there anything we can do about it?

There is a long running debate among forecasting professionals, on whether to use Forecast or Actual in the denominator of your percentage error calculations. The Winter 2009 issue of Foresight had an article by Kesten Green and Len Tashman, reporting on a survey (of the International Institute of Forecasters discussion

The Summer 2010 issue of Foresight is now available. Here is Editor Len Tashman’s preview: For so many years, we forecasters have developed and refined models for demand forecasts – forecasts for product and item sales, orders, shipments – without paying adequate attention to the details of how these forecasts

Better forecasting can, of course, help address many business problems. We want to believe that more accurate forecasts are always possible. “If only,” management bemoans, “if only we had bigger computers, more sophisticated software, more skilled forecast analysts – or if the analysts we have just worked harder!” Unfortunately, there

Just as we all eagerly awaited announcement of the $1 million prize winner of the Pillsbury Bake-Off(R), every forecasting software vendor has endured the "bake-off" hosted by organizations in the market for new forecasting software. Software selection teams utilize a bake-off to help evaluate competing vendors. Vendors are given a