Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like myself. In an attempt to make this field interesting to people who aren't so dismal by nature, our friends at PollyVote Election Forecasting ask the question: Could you be President of the United States? The PollyVote project is
Is there a forecasting problem you'd like to attack, and wouldn't mind a little financial support to do it? If so, the SAS/IIF Grant to Support Research on Forecasting may be just what you need to get started. For the tenth year, in collaboration with the International Institute of Forecasters,
The Perils Revisited A few posts ago I warned of the perils of forecasting benchmarks, and why they should not be used to set your forecasting performance objectives: Can you trust the data? Is measurement consistent across the respondents? Is the comparison relevant? In addition to a general suspicion about
Leaving Las Vegas Prince Harry, who recently gambled away a handful of the royal family jewels during a high-stakes billiards game, doesn't have to be the only person to leave Las Vegas with some important lessons learned. You can, too, by attending the Analytics2012 conference at Caesar's Palace, October 8-9. Learnings
Uncontrolled product proliferation can have bad consequences, and these are well recognized. There is certainly extra cost and complexity in managing more SKUs (rather than fewer SKUs). And it is unlikely that each new offering adds entirely incremental volume. Instead, the increased product overlap just leads to increased self-cannibalization. We
US Presidential Race Going to the Dogs Mitt Romney transporting his dog on the roof rack. Barack Obama eating dog meat as a child in Indonesia. Former candidate Rick Santorum overwrought about man-dog love. Is this what the US Presidential race has turned into -- one dog attack after another? Back in
Free The BFD The BFD has been on a short hiatus, fending off potential litigation with the organizing committee of a quadrennial international sporting event that isn't the World Cup. Per the advice of SAS Legal, I've had to make a few changes to the May 30 post, now entitled "Forecasting
Benchmarks of forecasting performance are available from several sources, including professional organizations and journals, academic research, and private consulting/benchmarking organizations. But there are several reasons why industry forecasting benchmarks should not be used for setting your own forecasting performance objectives. 1) Can you trust the data? Are the numbers based
My Brush With Glory The 2012 Summer [quadrennial international sporting event that isn't the World Cup] in London is just around the corner, and it's sure to be an exciting time for all. I had the good fortune to be living in the great state of Utah during the 2002 Winter [quadrennial international sporting event that
SAS Dress Code In addition to providing great software for forecasting (and business analytics in general), SAS is also renowned as a great place to work. (See #1, #1, and #3 rankings the past three years in the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For.) Part of this greatness is due
