Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
There are some things every company should know about the nature of its business. Yet many organizations don't know these fundamentals -- either because they are short on resources, or their resources don't have the analytical skills to do the work. The summer research projects offered by the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting,
The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting is seeking Master Student Projects in Forecasting, Data Mining, or Analytics for summer of 2015. Projects normally run from mid-May to mid-August, with reports issued a few weeks after. These projects are a cost efficient way for a company to carry out analytical work by
The Forecasting Savant Suppose you received an email from a self-proclaimed forecasting savant, advising you of a big upset in the upcoming mayoral election...and it turns out to be correct. You then get an email picking the underdog in the next championship boxing match...which is right again. Over the course
SAS Support Communities provide a forum in which to engage and share with your fellow SAS experts, now in over 20 topic areas including Forecasting and Econometrics. This is the go-to website for your hard core modeling questions, such as "Holdouts in PROC ARIMA," "2-stage Heckman (1979) procedure," and the
Just a reminder that on Wednesday, December 3, 10:00am ET, Paul Goodwin will be delivering the next Foresight/SAS Webinar on "Getting Real About Uncertainty." From the description: Many forecasts only tell us about things like probable events, expected sales and prospective demand. Often they tell us nothing about the level
Calling All Forecasters Have you tried Forecast Value Added analysis? What did you find out? Are you willing to share your learnings (at least those that can be revealed publicly)?Would you like to be featured in a new blog series on FVA, published by the Institute of Business Forecasting? The IBF was
Can you spare a few minutes to assist researchers at the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting? We have been commissioned by the European Journal of Operational Research to write a review article on Supply Chain Forecasting. In undertaking this task, we would like to ensure that the topics covered reflect the priorities
Business forecasting is a highly politicized process, subject to the biases and personal agendas of all forecasting process participants. This is why many -- perhaps most -- human adjustments to the forecast fail to make it better. And this is why relative metrics, such as FVA, are so helpful in
In his Spring 2014 article in Foresight, Paul Goodwin addressed the important issue of point vs. probabilistic forecasts. A point forecast is a single number (e.g., the forecast for item XYZ in December is 635 units). We are all familiar with point forecasts, as these are what's commonly produced (either
The Advanced Analytics division of SAS Research & Development has announced three Summer Fellowships in the areas of Forecasting and Econometrics. The SAS forecasting fellowships are open to doctoral candidates in mathematics, statistics, computer science, and related graduate departments in the United States. They offer the opportunity to work closely
