Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.
Editor Len Tashman's Preview of the Summer Issue of Foresight Clarity and effectiveness of communication are key to success – so says a recent survey by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), which reported that industry leaders and hiring managers considered communication skills to be the single most important
Paul Goodwin is Professor Emeritus of Management Science at University of Bath, and one of the speakers at this fall's Foresight Practitioner Conference (October 5-6 in Raleigh, NC). His topic will be "Use and Abuse of Judgmental Overrides to Statistical Forecasts"-- an area in which he has contributed much of
Let's continue now to Nikolaos Kourentzes' blog post on How to choose a forecast for your time series. Using a Validation Sample Nikos first discusses the fairly common approach of using a validation or "hold out" sample. The idea is to build your model based on a subset of the
Nikolaos Kourentzes is Associate Professor at Lancaster University, and a member of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting. In addition to having a great head of hair for a forecasting professor, Nikos has a great head for explaining fundamental forecasting concepts. In his recent blog post on How to choose a
SAS® Insights is a section of the sas.com website devoted to being "your top source for analytics news and views." It contains articles, interviews, research reports, and other content from both SAS and non-SAS contributors. In a new article posted this week, we added three short videos containing practical advice
Sometimes one's job gets in the way of one's blogging. My last three months have been occupied with the launch of SAS® Viya™, our next-generation high-performance and visualization architecture. Please take the time to find more information on the SAS Viya website, and apply for a free preview. Rob Hyndman
Editor Len Tashman's Preview of the Spring Issue of Foresight Misbehaving, the feature section of this 41st issue of Foresight, was prompted by the publication of Richard Thaler’s eye-opening book of the same title, a work that explains the often surprising gap between (a) the models we use and organizational
The new book Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions contains a large section of recent articles on forecasting performance evaluation and reporting. Among the contributing authors is Rob Hyndman, Professor of Statistics at Monash University in Australia. To anyone needing an introduction, Hyndman's credentials include: Editor-in-chief of International Journal of
"The Role of Model Interpretability in Data Science" is a recent post on Medium.com by Carl Anderson, Director of Data Science at the fashion eyeware company Warby Parker. Anderson argues that data scientists should be willing to make small sacrifices in model quality in order to deliver a model that
Editor Len Tashman's preview of the Winter 2016 issue of Foresight This 40th issue of Foresight begins with a review of the new book by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner with the enticing title Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Reviewer Steve Morlidge explains that …the “superforecasters” of the
