The New (BF) Deal


We had a tornado in April, an earthquake on Tuesday, a drought all summer, and a hurricane arrives on Saturday. All I can figure is that Cary, NC has way too many sinners per capita. What's next -- pestilence?

The BFD Makeover

The BFD (and all SAS blogs) will now be delivered through the new blogging environment you see here. A few posts from the old environment have been copied over, and I'll gradually be moving over the rest. Would hate for readers to lose access to such classics as "The Wrong Caesar," "In Defense of Outliers," "There is Someone Meaner Than Me," "Coyotes, Cougars, and an Operational Definition of Demand," "North Carolina DMV in Denial Over The BFD," and "SAS Pays Me to Write This Blog."

Fall Lineup of Events

If you are in the Chicago area on September 20th, be sure to stop by the Fountain Blue Des Plaines for the APICS-Chicago chapter professional development meeting (6:00-8:30 pm).  $45 (or $35 for APICS members) gets you dinner and networking opportunities, along with my presentation on "FVA Analysis - How to Uncover Waste & Cut Inefficiencies in Your Forecasting Process."  We'll also be giving away three copies of The BFD (you must be present to win).  The venue is just minutes from O'Hare, so plan your layover accordingly.

October 24-25, please join us in Orlando for the inaugural Analytics 2011 conference.  A2011 covers a broad range of analytics topics including forecasting, data mining, fraud detection, data visualization, predictive modeling, text analytics, credic scoring, operations research, and optimization.  Some of my favorite speakers will be there, including:

  • Sven Crone, Lancaster University, conference co-chair
  • Mike Leonard, R&D Manager for SAS forecasting, speaking on "Multifrequency Forecasting with SAS High-Performance Forecasting Software"
  • Jonathon Karelse, WTD Inc., speaking on "Improving Management Inputs Through Scenario Bias Correction"
  • Rob Miller, Avantor Performance Materials, on "Forecastability and Demand Volatility"
  • Tom Montgomery, Ford Motor Company, on "Prediction Markets"
  • Sean Schubert, Newell Rubbermaid, on "Using FVA Analysis for Data-Driven Forecasting Improvement"
  • Jim Hoover, Accenture, on "Achieving Savings and Preventing Fraud, Waste and Abuse in Your Procurement Processes."

Download the A2011 Agenda.  There will also be pre-conference workshops on October 23, and post-conference training October 26-28.

 At INFORMS in Charlotte, NC (November 13-16), we'll be doing a 90-minute session on FVA analysis with examples from Ryan Rickard of Newell Rubbermaid, and Mert Sanver of Cisco.  Ryan (along with Sean Schubert)gave a great session at the IBF conference in May, and will provide an update on Newell Rubbermaid's FVA efforts and findings.  Mert Sanver spoke briefly on FVA at the spring INFORMS conference in Chicago, and will provide a more thorough account in Charlotte.

In addition, Keith Collins, Chief Technology Officer at SAS, will be delivering the plenary on November 14.


About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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