Take a quick look at the two graphs below. Which one appears to be the LEAST complex construction? You might initially suppose it’s the bottom one, nothing but bar graphs, and maybe just one bar graph, the tallest one on the
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I was under the impression that Black Swans were supposed to be rare. Rare enough to be effectively non-computable by standard methods. Nassim Taleb’s formulation of the Black Swan Theory is comprised of the three traits of: outlier (rarity), extreme impact, and retrospective predictability (i.e. 20/20 hindsight). I write this
“Our performance last month was 46.” Oh, you don’t have to thank me, I was just doing my job. Not very well, I might add. 46? 46 what? Or 46 who’s? Without context, 46 is just a number, just data. In context, perhaps that’s 46 out of 48 (not too
With the exception of the occasional James Bond movie that proves the rule, we don’t as a matter of course combine our modes of transportation into one all-purpose vehicle, and we even tend to park our cars, boats and planes in separate facilities. But when it comes to financial management,
In honor of the United Nations World Statistics Day (October 20, 2010), let’s not leave finance out of the party. In fact, let’s continue with our focus from last time on the analytical and decision support payback afforded by Activity-based costing, perhaps the most underappreciated finance tool for adding value
Once you’ve quantified the risk surrounding your business decision (see my previous two posts on this topic) there comes the matter of presenting it in a manner that actually facilitates the decision making process, rather than bogging it down in irrelevant details. It’s not, of course, that executives are innumerate,
My introduction to the issue of risk in business decision making came rather abruptly and rudely during what I thought was going to be another routine quarterly business review with the executive committee. My particular agenda item was to present the business case for a “lite” version of one of
The best business book I’ve ever read (or at least the best by someone not named “Drucker”) has been “Competing on Value” by Mack Hanan and Peter Karp. Not trendy or full of consultant-speak buzzwords, first published in 1991, it’s simple, direct approach has stood the test of time, even
Somewhat surprisingly, we all probably know what we mean when we use strategy as an adjective, “strategic”, but manage to make a complete muddle out of the word as a noun, “strategy”. Can our tactics be strategic? I would think yes, if they are in accordance with some strategy. Can
The term “military intelligence” is often put forth as the epitome of an oxymoron, and while it is true that many military processes and approaches do not easily make the transition to the business world, there are several that should not be overlooked, intelligence being one of the most significant.
At the beginning of each year our Scout Troop puts the newly elected boy leaders through JLT, Junior Leader Training, in order to prepare them for the roles they will assume within the troop. About mid-way through the day-long training session, after we have covered the duties of all the
Twenty-four sessions, twenty-four speakers, twenty-four different topics over just two days, and I didn’t just sit through the convention as a participant, no, I moderated the entire two day event as its Chairman. The Financial Forecasting and Planning Summit, organized by the IE Group, and held at the DoubleTree Mission
Day one of the 2010 CFO Corporate Performance Management Conference in New York is in the books, and while the day’s presentations and discussions should rightly merit being the prime subjects of this post, those events have been overshadowed by one of even greater magnitude: dinner with Thornton May. Where