Two weeks ago we looked at the first two steps in effecting forecasting process change: Justify your suspicions with data Communicate your findings That was the easy part. So why is it that so many organization realize they have a forecasting problem, yet are unable to do anything about it?
Anomalies: The Beginning of a Crisis While even trained scientists can fail to see things that fall outside what they are looking for, anomalies eventually start to get noticed. But still, for a long time, anomalies within an existing paradigm are seen as mere “violations of expectation.” The response within
Paul Goodwin is Professor Emeritus of Management Science at University of Bath, and one of the speakers at this fall's Foresight Practitioner Conference (October 5-6 in Raleigh, NC). His topic will be "Use and Abuse of Judgmental Overrides to Statistical Forecasts"-- an area in which he has contributed much of
So you think you can outsmart your statistical forecast? Apparently, lots of people do. In "Judgmental Adjustments to Forecasts in the New Economy" (Foresight, Issue 38 (Summer 2015), 31-36), Manzoor Chowdhury and Sonia Manzoor argue that forecasters are becoming more dependent on judgmental adjustments to a statistical forecast. Sometimes this
In his Spring 2014 article in Foresight, Paul Goodwin addressed the important issue of point vs. probabilistic forecasts. A point forecast is a single number (e.g., the forecast for item XYZ in December is 635 units). We are all familiar with point forecasts, as these are what's commonly produced (either
In 2015 Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting will celebrate 10 years of publication. From high in his aerie in the Colorado Rockies, here is Editor-in-Chief Len Tashman's preview of the current issue: In this 35th issue of Foresight, we revisit a topic that always generates lively and entertaining
Again this year (for the 12th time), SAS Research & Development has funded two $5,000 research grants, to be awarded by the International Institute of Forecasters. Criteria for award of the grant will include likely impact on forecasting methods and business applications. Consideration will be given to new researchers in
Mercifully, we have reached the final installment of Q&A from the June 20 Foresight-SAS webinar, "Forecast Value Added: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices." As a reminder, a recording of the webinar is available for on-demand review, and the Foresight article (upon which the webinar was based) is available for free
Please enjoy a much-needed break from FVA Q&A with editor Len Tashman's preview of the Summer 2013 issue of Foresight: Enlightenment has been our guiding principle through this, our 30th issue of Foresight. Since the journal’s inception in 2005, our mission has been to help the forecasting profession come to
"Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?" now available on-demand The SAS / Foresight webinar series had a rousing kickoff on April 24, with Paul Goodwin asking (and answering) the question, "Why Should I Trust Your Forecasts?" The webinar is now available for free on-demand review . Be sure to stick
This week Nate Silver, renowned election forecaster (fivethirtyeight blog) and top selling author (of the excellent The Signal and the Noise), spoke at an event here in my building on the SAS campus. Unfortunately, I wasn't considered a B enough of a FD to land an invite to Nate's presentation. However,
Paul Goodwin's Hot New Research column is a must-read in each issue of Foresight. The current column, "High on Complexity, Low on Evidence: Are Advanced Forecasting Methods Always as Good as They Seem?" ends with this sage advice: If the name of a method contains more words than the number of observations that
