If you think machine learning will replace demand planners, then don’t read this post. If you think machine learning will automate and unleash the power of insights allowing demand planners to drive more value and growth, then this article is a must read.
Supply Chain Lead Times Most companies with a supply chain have to deal with supply lead times. When I worked in the processed meats industry many years ago, production plans were locked three weeks in advance.That's how long it took to secure raw materials and schedule the production lines. Many
In a recent meeting, the CIO of a leading commercial automotive company’s shared his experience of high complexity in managing forecasting data. I was not surprised. Often demand planners complain about managing forecasting data. I can relate to where there are coming from. It’s due to the approach prescribed by their legacy
Does your forecast look like a radio? No? Then don't treat it like one. A radio's tuning knob serves a valid purpose. It lets you make fine adjustments, improving reception of the incoming signal, resulting in a clearer and more enjoyable listening experience. But just because you can make fine adjustments to
And now for the five steps: 1. Ignore industry benchmarks, past performance, arbitrary objectives, and what management "needs" your accuracy to be. Published benchmarks of industry forecasting performance are not relevant. See this prior post The perils of forecasting benchmarks for explanation. Previous forecasting performance may be interesting to know, but
Last time we saw two situations where you wouldn't bother trying to improve your forecast: When forecast accuracy is "good enough" and is not constraining organizational performance. When the costs and consequences of a less-than-perfect forecast are low. (Another situation was brought to my attention by Sean Schubert of
If the popularity of one's blog can be measured by the number of comments received, then The BFD has become quite popular. Many of the comments are quite flattering, such as: Hello, I check your blog like еvery week. Үour writing style is wittу, keep doing ωhat you're doing! Vеry
The March 28 edition of APICS extra features an article by Fred Tolbert on "The Seven Deadly Sins of Sales Forecasting." Although I have some objection to his Deadly Sin #1: Using Shipment History (and will discuss the objection in a forthcoming guest-post on the Institute of Business Forecasting blog),
