Note: The following concludes an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Good forecasts don’t always ‘look right’ Many forecasters believe that they can tell how good a forecast is by ‘eyeballing’ it. Good forecasts just ‘look right’ or so they would

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. The measurement challenge So here is the forecasters dilemma: There will always have forecast error. The challenge is to work out the cause of the error and to take the appropriate

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. The forecasting challenge It is not possible to forecast any future outcomes precisely. Only the signal is potentially forecastable – noise is unforecastable in principle. And all forecasts assume that the

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Data Series are different – and it matters to forecasters The nature of demand that is to be forecast, as represented by patterns in the historic data series, that is to

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Forecasting is not compulsory Operational forecasting is important but it is not mandatory. operational forecasts are used to make sure that a business can respond effectively to customer demand for its

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. The quality of forecasts matters…a lot It is difficult to precisely estimate the business impact of forecast quality partly because it impacts so many variables in ways that are not easy

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting. Different kinds of forecasts This book is focused on operational forecasting – the stuff you do to determine what you need to buy, produce, hold in stock or otherwise give your customers

Note: Following is an eight-part serialization of selected content from Steve Morlidge's The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting.   What IS a forecast? First of all, we need to be absolutely clear what a forecast is – and what it isn’t. A forecast is a best estimate of future

The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting Steve Morlidge's latest work, The Little (Illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting, is a unique contribution to the field. It is a guide for short term operational forecasting, delivered in a pocket-sized format, through 79 brief (two page) illustrated lessons. As I stated in my