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Are you a prefectionist when it comes to forecasting, or any kind of data analysis? If so, perhaps my SAS colleague Gary Cokins can cure you.

Gary is a prolific writer and contributor in the performance management field, and describes himself as a "ready-fire-aim" kind of guy. By this he means that he can stop analyzing when the information is good enough to gain insights or make decisions.

In a blog post "The Perils of Analysts Demanding Perfection and Precision" on AllAnalytics.com, Gary argues that speed and agility trumps slow and deliberate study, and I tend to agree. In forecasting you cannot expect perfection, so why knock yourself out pursuing the unachievable?

The value in a forecast, or any other type of analytical endeavor, is to discover something that helps us make better decisions and achieve better outcomes. The value is in the improvement. But we have to be reasonable and balance our efforts with the likely payback.

As in the Accuracy vs. Effort  chart, a little extra effort may deliver most of the achievable benefits. While a lot of extra effort may deliver very little incremental value.

Less than perfect analysis does not mean it should be "flawed, misleading, or indefensible." This is not an apology for careless work. Rather, the message is that "perfection can be the enemy of the good," improvement is the key, and just being better is often good enough.

Tags AllAnalytics.com Gary Cokins
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About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

1 Comment

  1. Water Management on

    Absolutely, quality always counts better than quantity. A little, but smart and effective work is beneficiary than that of long and tidy, but ineffective work. You must try to do everything with a perfection, doesn't matter if it take some extra time. This is the key point of success.

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