Forecasting lessons from The Twilight Zone

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Even Rod Serling recognized that sometimes we can't forecast worth a darn.

"The Rip Van Winkle Caper" is an episode from Season 2 of the television series, The Twilight Zone, and first aired in 1961. It involves four train robbers who steal a million dollars worth of gold bars, hide themselves and the hefty bullion in a cave, and put themselves in suspended animation for 100 years. The plan is to wake up in 2061, long after the robbery is forgotten, and live large on the million dollars.

The storyline perplexed me for a couple of reasons:

  1. One of the robbers is a scientific genius who figures out how to put people into suspended animation, but can't find legitimate employment at a medical research institute or major pharmaceutical company? (And we thought today's job market was tough.)
  2. Why 100 years? Why not just suspend yourselves for five or seven years (or whatever is beyond the statute of limitations in their local jurisdiction)?

I was also curious about the long term effects of inflation on the robbers' future buying power, and the long term price of gold, which stood at just $35/troy ounce in 1961. Clearly the robbers failed to anticipate the US coming off the gold standard, as today (just 51 years after placing themselves in suspended animation), gold prices are over $1600.

Good Conduct Well Chastised

As in so much of Serling's writing, no bad deed goes unpunished, and upon waking in 2061 the robbers greedily kill each other off before cashing in on their booty. (This should be contrasted to the writings of de Sade, where no good deed goes unpunished. In fact, no deed of any sort goes unpunished. And no booty goes uncashed in on either.)

In the surprise ending, we find that by 2061 scientists have figured out how to manufacture gold, so supplies are plentiful and the stolen bars are virtually worthless.

The robbers had spent 100 years of their lives in vain -- all due to lousy forecasting.

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About Author

Mike Gilliland

Product Marketing Manager

Michael Gilliland is a longtime business forecasting practitioner and formerly a Product Marketing Manager for SAS Forecasting. He is on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters, and is Associate Editor of their practitioner journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. Mike is author of The Business Forecasting Deal (Wiley, 2010) and former editor of the free e-book Forecasting with SAS: Special Collection (SAS Press, 2020). He is principal editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions (Wiley, 2015) and Business Forecasting: The Emerging Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (Wiley, 2021). In 2017 Mike received the Institute of Business Forecasting's Lifetime Achievement Award. In 2021 his paper "FVA: A Reality Check on Forecasting Practices" was inducted into the Foresight Hall of Fame. Mike initiated The Business Forecasting Deal blog in 2009 to help expose the seamy underbelly of forecasting practice, and to provide practical solutions to its most vexing problems.

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