Tag: Pollyvote

Mike Gilliland 0
Guest Blogger: Len Tashman previews Winter 2013 issue of Foresight

Editor Len Tashman's Preview of Foresight Foresight has always presented its methods-based articles as either tutorials, which introduce and illustrate a methodology in nontechnical language, or as case studies, with a focus on the practical issues and challenges in generating forecasts. We lead off this issue with two practical issues articles. First, Stephan

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Mike Gilliland 0
Simple methods and ensemble forecasting of elections

Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as well as fancy methods, and that combining (averaging)  forecasts, also known as "ensemble forecasting," will usually result in more accurate predictions than the individual methods being averaged. We saw a good demonstration of these principles in Tuesday's election

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Mike Gilliland 0
The predictive power of nonsense

The 2012 US Presidential race comes to a close today (thankfully), and there is no shortage of wacky indicators predicting the winner: Iowa Electronic Markets FiveThirtyEight PollyVote University of Colorado In primitive times a diviner could foretell the future by poisoning a chicken -- whether it lived or died provided

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Mike Gilliland 0
Could you be POTUS?

Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like myself. In an attempt to make this field interesting to people who aren't so dismal by nature, our friends at PollyVote Election Forecasting ask the question: Could you be President of the United States? The PollyVote project is

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