Q: How important is it to recognize real trend change in noisy data? A: It is very important. In fact the job of any forecast algorithm is to predict the signal – whether it is trending or not – and to ignore the noise. Unfortuantely this is not easy to
Q: Do you think the forecaster should distribute forecast accuracy to stakeholders (e.g. to show how good/bad the forecast is) or do you think this will confuse stakeholders? A: This just depends what is meant by stakeholders. And what is meant by forecast accuracy. If stakeholders means those people who
In a pair of articles published in Foresight, and in his SAS/Foresight webinar "Avoidability of Forecast Error" last November, Steve Morlidge of CatchBull laid out a compelling new approach on the subject of "forecastability." It is generally agreed that the naive model (i.e. random walk or "no change" model) provides
